NZD/USD sticks to modest gains after mixed Chinese PMIs, remains below 0.5800
- NZD/USD trades with a positive bias for the third straight day amid subdued USD demand.
- Fed rate cut bets and concerns about the US government shutdown undermine the buck.
- Mixed Chinese PMIs fail to provide any impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi.
The NZD/USD pair trims a part of its modest Asian session gains to the 0.5800 mark, though retains its positive bias for the third straight day on Tuesday and moves little following the release of official Chinese PMIs.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that China’s Manufacturing PMI rose from 49.4 in the previous month to 49.8 in September, beating market estimates for a reading of 49.6. This, to a larger extent, was offset by an unexpected fall in the Non-Manufacturing PMI to 50, versus 50.3 in August, and does little to provide any meaningful impetus to antipodean currencies, including the Kiwi.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers amid the looming US government shutdown. Apart from this, the growing acceptance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs twice by the end of this year, along with a generally positive risk tone, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and continues to act as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair.
Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of JOLTS Job Openings data and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index. Apart from this, speeches by influential FOMC members would drive the USD demand later during the North American session and provide some impetus to the NZD/USD pair.
Economic Indicator
NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI
The NBS Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s non-manufacturing sector, namely services and construction.The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at services and construction companies. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Renminbi (CNY). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers and real-estate is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for CNY.
Read more.Last release: Tue Sep 30, 2025 01:30
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 50
Consensus: 50.3
Previous: 50.3
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) publishes the non-manufacturing PMI on a monthly basis. The gauge highlights the performance of China’s service sector, which has a significant impact on the global FX market, given the size of the Chinese economy. An expansion in the Chinese service sector activity points to signs of economic improvement and vice-versa.
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