When are the German Retail Sales and how could they affect EUR/USD?
The German Retail Sales Overview
The Federal Statistics Office of Germany, Destatis, will publish the Retail Sales report on Tuesday at 06:00 GMT.
Germany's Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.6% month-over-month (MoM) in August, in comparison to the previous decline of 1.5%. However, the annual Retail Sales climbed by 1.9% in July.
How could the German Retail Sales affect EUR/USD?
A stronger-than-expected German Retail Sales data may push the EUR/USD pair to extend its gains. However, recent data in the Eurozone showed that sentiment improved but failed to support the Euro against its peers. Traders await Unemployment and flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany due later in the day.
The EUR/USD pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) weakened, as traders tread cautiously amid concerns that the upcoming US jobs report may not be released this week, with the government nearing a funding freeze and possible shutdown.
Technically, the EUR/USD pair maintains its position near 1.1720 at the time of writing, following two days of gains. The market bias is bearish as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly below the 50 level. Further movements will likely offer a clear directional trend.
The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.1735. A break above this level would improve the short-term price momentum and support the pair to explore the region around 1.1918, the highest since June 2021, which was recorded on September 17. On the downside, the initial support appears at the 50-day EMA of 1.1686. Further declines would prompt the EUR/USD pair to test the monthly low of 1.1608.
German economy FAQs
The German economy has a significant impact on the Euro due to its status as the largest economy within the Eurozone. Germany's economic performance, its GDP, employment, and inflation, can greatly influence the overall stability and confidence in the Euro. As Germany's economy strengthens, it can bolster the Euro's value, while the opposite is true if it weakens. Overall, the German economy plays a crucial role in shaping the Euro's strength and perception in global markets.
Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone and therefore an influential actor in the region. During the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2009-12, Germany was pivotal in setting up various stability funds to bail out debtor countries. It took a leadership role in the implementation of the 'Fiscal Compact' following the crisis – a set of more stringent rules to manage member states’ finances and punish ‘debt sinners’. Germany spearheaded a culture of ‘Financial Stability’ and the German economic model has been widely used as a blueprint for economic growth by fellow Eurozone members.
Bunds are bonds issued by the German government. Like all bonds they pay holders a regular interest payment, or coupon, followed by the full value of the loan, or principal, at maturity. Because Germany has the largest economy in the Eurozone, Bunds are used as a benchmark for other European government bonds. Long-term Bunds are viewed as a solid, risk-free investment as they are backed by the full faith and credit of the German nation. For this reason they are treated as a safe-haven by investors – gaining in value in times of crisis, whilst falling during periods of prosperity.
German Bund Yields measure the annual return an investor can expect from holding German government bonds, or Bunds. Like other bonds, Bunds pay holders interest at regular intervals, called the ‘coupon’, followed by the full value of the bond at maturity. Whilst the coupon is fixed, the Yield varies as it takes into account changes in the bond's price, and it is therefore considered a more accurate reflection of return. A decline in the bund's price raises the coupon as a percentage of the loan, resulting in a higher Yield and vice versa for a rise. This explains why Bund Yields move inversely to prices.
The Bundesbank is the central bank of Germany. It plays a key role in implementing monetary policy within Germany, and central banks in the region more broadly. Its goal is price stability, or keeping inflation low and predictable. It is responsible for ensuring the smooth operation of payment systems in Germany and participates in the oversight of financial institutions. The Bundesbank has a reputation for being conservative, prioritizing the fight against inflation over economic growth. It has been influential in the setup and policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).
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