Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar weakens on Fed rate cut bets
- Australian Dollar advances as US Dollar holds losses ahead of labor market data.
- The US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by about 75,000 in August, while the Unemployment Rate is projected at 4.3%.
- The AUD appreciates as robust July Trade Surplus and Q2 GDP figures eased expectations of additional RBA rate cuts.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing its recent losses registered in the previous session. The AUD/USD pair appreciates as the US Dollar struggles amid softer-than-expected United States (US) job data.
Traders are awaiting further labor market data on Friday that could shape the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision in September. Economists project US Nonfarm Payrolls to add about 75,000 jobs in August, while the Unemployment Rate is seen at 4.3%. Any softer data would boost the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is retracing its recent gains and trading around 98.10 at the time of writing. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a pricing in more than 99% of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the Fed at the September policy meeting, up from 87% a week ago.
The US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 237K for the week ending August 30, against the previous reading of 229K. This figure came in above the market consensus of 230K. Meanwhile, ADP Employment Change showed that employment rose by 54,000 in August, which came in below the expectation of 65K. This reading followed a 106K (revised from 104K) increase recorded in July.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against its peers as a solid July Trade Surplus, along with robust Q2 GDP figures, eased expectations of additional Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts. Swaps are now assigning nearly a 90% probability that the central bank will keep policy unchanged in late September.
Australian Dollar advances on easing bets of RBA rate cuts
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported on Thursday that Australia’s Trade Balance increased to 7,310 million month-over-month in July, from 5,366 million (revised from 5,365 million) the prior month. The trade surplus widened against the expected decline to 4,920 million. Australia's Exports rose by 3.3% MoM in July from 6.3% (revised from 6.0%) seen prior. Meanwhile, Imports declined by 1.3% MoM in July, compared to a fall of 1.5% (revised from -3.1%) seen in June.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Wednesday that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.6% quarter-over-quarter in Q2, following the 0.3% growth in Q1 and surpassing the expectations of 0.5% expansion. Meanwhile, the annual Q2 GDP grew by 1.8%, compared with the 1.4% growth in Q1, and was above the consensus of a 1.6% increase.
- Australia’s Monthly Consumer Price Index rose 2.8% year-over-year in July, beating both the previous 1.9% increase and the 2.3% forecast. The hotter inflation in July dampened the likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut anytime soon, continuing to provide support for the Australian Dollar.
- China’s Caixin Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) unexpectedly rose to 53.0 in August from 52.6 in July. The data came in above the market forecast of 52.5 in the reported period. Caixin Manufacturing PMI jumped to 50.5 in August from 49.5 in July. It is worth noting that any change in the Chinese economy could influence AUD as China and Australia are close trading partners.
- US JOLTS data showed July job openings declined to 7.18 million from 7.35 million, marking the weakest level since September 2024 and missing forecasts of 7.4 million.
- Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned again on Wednesday, cautioning that tariffs are pushing the consumer-facing costs of goods higher, resulting in climbing inflation figures. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that high inflation remained the Fed’s main risk, but added that signs of labour market weakness still pointed to a single quarter-point rate cut this year.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday that he expects the Supreme Court will approve Trump’s use of a 1977 emergency powers law to slap the tariffs on trading partners, and the administration has a backup plan if it does not. Trump, meanwhile, pledged to seek an “expedited ruling” from the Court.
Australian Dollar recovers from confluence support zone near 0.6500
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6530 on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair is positioned on the lower boundary of the ascending channel pattern. Further movement will offer a clear directional trend. The pair is positioned slightly above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating short-term price momentum is still stronger.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may target the five-week high of 0.6568, reached on August 14, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6600. A break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to test the nine-month high of 0.6625, which was recorded on July 24.
The immediate support appears at the nine-day EMA of 0.6521, aligned with the ascending channel’s lower boundary and followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6503. A break below this crucial support zone would cause the emergence of the bearish bias and prompt the AUD/USD pair to test its three-month low of 0.6414, recorded on August 21.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.15% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.28% | -0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.16% | 0.04% | -0.05% | 0.08% | -0.03% | -0.10% | 0.02% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | -0.04% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.05% | -0.15% | 0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.05% | 0.08% | 0.13% | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.17% | |
| CAD | 0.08% | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.14% | -0.20% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.05% | 0.06% | 0.14% | -0.09% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | 0.28% | 0.10% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.09% | 0.16% | |
| CHF | 0.14% | -0.02% | -0.02% | -0.17% | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.16% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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