US Dollar Index hovers around 99.50 as Fed rate cut odds diminish
- The US Dollar Index moves little amid diminishing likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 49% odds for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in December.
- Traders await the September Nonfarm Payrolls report due Thursday, seeking fresh guidance on Fed outlook.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding ground after a three-day winning streak and trading around 99.60 during the European hours on Wednesday. However, the Greenback may regain its ground due to the diminishing likelihood of a US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicated that markets are now pricing in a 49% odds of the Fed delivering a 25-basis-point rate cut at its December meeting, down from 63% probability that markets priced a week ago.
Traders will likely observe the highly anticipated September Nonfarm Payrolls data due on Thursday, to gain fresh impetus on Fed policy outlook. US Initial Jobless Claims showed on Tuesday that 232,000 people filed first-time claims for state unemployment insurance in the week ended October 18. Meanwhile, an Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report showed that employers cut 2,500 jobs a week on average during the four weeks ending November 1.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that the labor market appears more balanced, with firms reporting improved worker availability and recent layoffs signalling the need for caution. Barkin noted inflation doesn’t seem to be rising, but it’s also unclear whether it will return to the Fed’s 2% target. He highlighted that, without more decisive data, it remains difficult to reach a broad policy consensus.
US President Donald Trump said in an Oval Office interview on Tuesday that he “would love” to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell immediately. Trump added that he already has a preferred candidate in mind for the position, noting that there are “some surprising names” under consideration, though the administration may ultimately choose a more traditional option.
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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