USD: Blowback to US growth prospects dominates – ING

The trade-weighted DXY has broken to a new low for the year as investors continue to fear what these new reciprocal tariffs mean for US confidence and activity, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

Softer risk assets can drag DXY towards the 102.00 area today

"This uncertainty has been a key factor driving US equities lower this year and prompting both a dovish re-pricing of the Fed cycle and a weaker dollar. At the time of writing, S&P 500 June index futures are marked to decline around 3% – and this follows a 3% drop in benchmark equity indices across Asia. At the heart of the story is Donald Trump delivering on his promise to restructure the global trading system. His incentives are clearly laid out in his Executive Order. In reality, the outcome is about as bad as it could be." 

"China tariffs are virtually now at 60%, EU tariffs are at 20% and there's a baseline universal tariff of 10%. Given that these tariffs are being presented at 'discounted rates', there is also the potential for them to be increased in the event of retaliation. The jeopardy of a global trade war remains, and hence we're seeing no relief rally in risk assets on the view that all the bad news is out the way and things are as bad as they can get."

"For today's session, look out for the weekly jobs initial claims data and then ISM Services. We should also be on the potential lookout for European retaliation in the services sector, since the US runs a large surplus with Europe in this area. DXY has nearly retraced 75% of the Trump rally since October. Softer risk assets can drag it towards the 102.00 area today."