WTI drifts higher to near $89.00 amid Lebanon-Israel ceasefire strains
- WTI price gains momentum to near $89.00 in Friday’s Asian session.
- Lebanon's army accused Israel of violating the ceasefire, hours after a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah began.
- Traders will closely monitor another round of US-Iran talks that could take place this weekend.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $89.00 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The WTI price edges higher after reports that Lebanon's army accuses Israel of violating the ceasefire.
US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. The uncertainty in the Middle East remains high as the Lebanese army stated on Friday that it recorded multiple ceasefire violations by Israel after the truce went into effect at midnight local time on Friday. Any signs of escalating tensions in the Middle East could boost the WTI price in the near term.
Trump also said on Thursday that the US and Iran will probably meet over the weekend for a second round of negotiations. But a date has not been set officially for the talks. Earlier on Thursday, Trump expressed optimism about the possibility that the US and Iran could clinch a permanent ceasefire ahead of its expiration next week.
Hopes for a two-week ceasefire extension could weigh on the WTI price. However, several European and Gulf Arab leaders believe it could take six months to negotiate a US-Iran deal, per Bloomberg.
Brent Crude Oil FAQs
Brent Crude Oil is a type of Crude Oil found in the North Sea that is used as a benchmark for international Oil prices. It is considered ‘light’ and ‘sweet’ because of its high gravity and low sulfur content, making it easier to refine into gasoline and other high-value products. Brent Crude Oil serves as a reference price for approximately two-thirds of the world's internationally traded Oil supplies. Its popularity rests on its availability and stability: the North Sea region has well-established infrastructure for Oil production and transportation, ensuring a reliable and consistent supply.
Like all assets supply and demand are the key drivers of Brent Crude Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of Brent Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of Brent Crude Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact Brent Crude Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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