Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades flat around $74 ahead of US-Iran talks
- Silver price flattens around $74.00 as investors await US-Iran talks on permanent ceasefire.
- Iran criticizes the US for violating three clauses of the 10-point proposal.
- The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady at their current levels this year.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades calmly near $74.00 during the late Asian trading session on Thursday. The white metal struggles for direction amid uncertainty surrounding the first round of talks on a permanent ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran in Pakistan on Saturday.
On late Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that US President Donald Trump will send Vice President (VP) JD Vance-led team in Pakistan on Saturday to discuss the 10-point peace proposal shared by Iran as demands for a permanent ceasefire.
Ahead of US-Iran talks, Iran’s parliament speaker and chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf has criticized the US, through a post on X, for violating three clauses of the 10-point proposal. Qalibaf alleged the US for attacking Lebanon, referring the first clause, which is “an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and other regions, effective immediately”.
The Silver price remained under pressure in the past few weeks, as oil prices gained sharply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, as part of retaliation against military actions from the US and Israel.
Higher oil prices had prompted traders to raise hawkish bets for global central banks; however, they have eased significantly, following the announcement of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 76.4% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady this year, a sharp turnaround from expectations of two interest rate hikes built during the war.
Rising hopes of tight monetary conditions by the Fed bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
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XAG/USD trades almost flat at around $74.00 as of writing, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $74.89. The metal continues to consolidate near recent lows, with the modestly soft 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 suggesting subdued bullish momentum and leaving the path of least resistance tilted to the downside while price remains capped by the overhead EMA.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at $74.89, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a more meaningful recovery toward the April 2 high of $81.13. But until price reclaims the EMA, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within a weak short-term structure.
Looking down, the psychological level of $70.00 is the key support for the price, followed by the March 26 low of $66.70.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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