Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines to near $75 at the start of the week

• Silver price tumbles to near $75.00 as soft US CPI data fails to prompt dovish Fed bets.
• The Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the March and April policy meetings.
• A likely US military action in Iran could boost the demand of safe-haven assets.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 2% lower below $76.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal is under pressure as lower-than-projected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January fails to prompt hopes of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near term.

Theoretically, lower inflation boosts hope of monetary policy easing by the Fed in the near-term. While it seems that market participants are more focused on labor market than changes in price pressures.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders remain confident that the Fed will keep interest rates steady in the current range of 3.50%-3.75% in March and April.

The data showed on Friday that the US headline inflation cooled down to 2.4% Year-on-year (YoY) from 2.7% in December. On a monthly basis, the US headline CPI grew at a slower pace of 0.2% against estimates and the prior reading of 0.3%.

On the geopolitical front, investors remain concerned over tensions between the US and Iran. A report from Reuters has stated that the US military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if President Donald Trump orders an attack, a scenario that would force investors to shift to the safe-haven fleet.

Silver technical analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $75.61. Price holds below the falling 20-EMA at $84.23, keeping the near-term bias heavy as trend pressure remains to the downside. The average continues to descend, underscoring persistent supply. RSI at 43.47 sits below the 50 midline, confirming weak momentum rather than capitulation.

Below the dynamic cap, rebounds could fade on approach to the average and keep the sequence of lower highs intact. A daily close above $84.23 would ease pressure and open room for a corrective recovery, with confirmation strengthened if RSI reclaims 50. Until that occurs, risk stays skewed toward further weakness and rallies would be sold into.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)