WTI drifts higher to near $59.50 on EIA inventory draw
- WTI price gains ground to near $59.50 in Thursday’s Asian session.
- EIA reported a surprise crude oil inventory decline.
- The US is renewing its efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $59.50 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. The WTI edges higher amid a larger-than-expected draw from US crude stockpiles last week on higher refinery runs and exports.
Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil stockpiles in the US for the week ending November 14 declined by 3.426 million barrels compared to a rise of 6.413 million barrels in the previous week. This figure came in below the market consensus of -1.9 million barrels. US crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Nonetheless, a renewed push to end the Russia-Ukraine war might cap the upside for the WTI price. US President Donald Trump's administration has signaled to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that his side must accept a US drafted framework to end the war with Russia, which proposes Kyiv giving up territory and some weapons, per Reuters. An end to the war in Ukraine might open the door for higher Russian oil flows, adding to oversupply fears.
Meanwhile, investors have trimmed expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in the December meeting due to the uncertainty. Markets are now pricing in less than a 30% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut next month, down from more than 60% earlier this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Higher for longer interest rates generally lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the WTI price, as it makes USD-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign buyers.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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