Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD climbs above $4,050 amid risk-off sentiment
- Gold price rises to near $4,070 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
- Traders will closely monitor the delayed US NFP report for September, which is scheduled for release later on Thursday.
- Hawkish US Fed comments might cap the Gold’s upside.
Gold price XAU/USD attracts some buyers to around $4,070, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rises amid the risk-off sentiment as traders brace for the long-awaited return of US economic data. The FOMC Minutes will be the highlights later on Wednesday, ahead of the US September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
US NFP reports for September and October 2025 were not released as scheduled due to a US government shutdown. The delay in employment data complicates the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decisions regarding interest rates ahead of its December meeting. This, in turn, could boost a traditional safe-haven asset like Gold.
The US employment report for September is now expected to be released on Thursday. The US economy is projected to see 50,000 jobs added in September, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to stay at 4.3% during the same period. If the report comes in weaker than expected, this could exert some selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and support the USD-denominated commodity price.
On the other hand, hawkish remarks from the Fed officials tempered expectations of a December rate cut and might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that the Fed should proceed "slowly" with further rate reductions. Meanwhile, several Fed policymakers, including Atlanta Fed President Bostic and Kansas City Fed President Schmid, voiced concerns about inflation or signaled support for holding rates steady.
Traders are currently pricing in a 46.6% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut in December, down from more than 60% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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