USD/CHF remains below 0.8000 ahead of Swiss Producer, Import prices data
- USD/CHF faces downward pressure as the Swiss Franc gains strength amid rising safe-haven demand.
- The Swiss Franc is drawing support from fading expectations of further policy easing by the Swiss National Bank.
- President Trump imposed a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union and Mexico.
USD/CHF remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 0.7970 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair struggled as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support from increased safe-haven demand amid ongoing global trade uncertainties, driven uncertain tariff concerns. Swiss Producer and Import Prices data for June will be eyed later in the day.
Additionally, the CHF draws support from wavering expectations of further Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy easing amid a renewed inflation risk. The SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate steady at 0% in September, with many analysts forecasting that it will likely remain at that level through 2026.
Additionally, the USD/CHF pair faces challenges as the US Dollar (USD) declines amid escalating global trade tensions. US President Donald Trump announced, on Saturday, a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico starting August 1. Trump also proposed a blanket tariff rate of 15%-20% on other trading partners, an increase from the current 10% baseline rate.
However, the European Union announced on Sunday that it will extend its pause on retaliatory measures against US tariffs until early August, in hopes of reaching a negotiated agreement. Reports also indicated that the EU has initiated discussions with other countries hit by the tariffs, including Canada and Japan, to explore coordinated responses.
However, the USD/CHF pair may appreciate as the US Dollar could regain its ground amid renewed market caution surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that ongoing trade policy at the hands of Trump's constant tariff threats could hamper the ability of the Fed to deliver rate reductions that both the broader market and Trump himself want to see.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
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