EUR/USD trades lower around 1.1800, upside appears amid rising odds of Fed rate cuts
- EUR/USD may appreciate as the US Dollar struggles due to rising expectations the Fed cutting interest rates.
- US ADP Employment Change fell by 33,000 in June, against the downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May.
- ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said, “I am not uncomfortable with the market's interest rate expectations.”
EUR/USD remains subdued for the second successive session, trading around 1.1800 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair may regain its ground as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates, driven by the downbeat ADP national employment report.
US ADP Employment Change fell for the first time in more than two years in June. The private-sector payrolls decreased by 33,000 in June after a downwardly revised 29,000 gain in May. This figure came in below the market consensus of 95,000.
Traders await highly anticipated labor market data, including US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings, due later in the day. Moreover, ISM Services PMI and S&P Global US PMI will also be eyed on Thursday.
Latest remarks from several European Central Bank (ECB) officials on the ECB forum highlighted increasing concern over the Euro's (EUR) strength and its potential dampening effect on inflation.
ECB policymaker Pierre Wunsch said on Wednesday that “I am not uncomfortable with the market's interest rate expectations.” “There is an argument for providing a mildly supportive policy stance,” Wunsch added. Meanwhile, ECB member Olli Rehn said, “ECB should be mindful of the risk that inflation stays persistently below 2% target.” Rehn noted that the “joint European borrowing to finance defence could bolster the Euro's role by creating a new safe asset.”
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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