New Zealand Dollar weakens to near 0.5950 despite hotter Chinese CPI inflation data
- NZD/USD softens to around 0.5950 in Monday’s early Asian session.
- China’s April CPI and PPI came in hotter than expected as the Iran war drives energy costs higher.
- China and the US will hold trade talks later this week.
The NZD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.5950 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remains weak against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of the Chinese inflation report. The US Existing Home Sales data for April is due later on Monday.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Monday showed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 1.2% in April, compared to a rise of 1.0% in March. This figure came in hotter than the expectations of 0.8%. On a monthly basis, Chinese CPI inflation arrived at 0.3% MoM in April, versus a fall of 0.7% prior, hotter than the expectation of a 0.1% decline.
Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 2.8% YoY in April, following a 0.5% increase in March. The data came in above the market consensus of a 1.5% rise. However, the Chinese inflation data have little to no impact on the China-proxy Kiwi.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to host US President Donald Trump later this week, as both countries seek to stabilize a relationship strained by tensions over trade, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war.
Trump on Sunday dismissed Iran's response to US proposals to end the war as "totally unacceptable.” The Tasnim news agency said that Iran's proposal included an immediate end to the war on all fronts, a halt to a US naval blockade, and guarantees of no further attacks on Iran. Signs of prolonged war in the Middle East could boost the Greenback as a safe-haven currency in the near term.
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
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