British Pound pares intraday losses; bulls seem hesitant near 1.3600 on firmer USD
- GBP/USD attracts some dip-buying following a bearish gap opening at the start of a new week.
- Persistent geopolitical uncertainties and hawkish Fed bets underpin the safe-haven Greenback.
- Easing UK political risks and the BoE’s rate hike signal help limit the downside for spot prices.
The GBP/USD pair rebounds nearly 50 pips following a bearish gap opening at the start of a new week and climbs back to the 1.3600 mark during the Asian session. However, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength might cap any further gains for spot prices.
US President Donald Trump and Iran both rejected each other’s peace proposals for ending the war and the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz amid major disagreements over Iran's nuclear program. This comes on top of renewed hostilities and keeps geopolitical risks in play, which, in turn, assists the safe-haven Greenback to attracts some buyers and should keep a lid on the GBP/USD pair.
Meanwhile, the latest developments trigger a fresh leg up in Crude Oil prices and revive inflationary concerns. Adding to this, Friday's upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report backs the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to stick to its hawkish stance and remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This lends additional support to the USD, and warrants caution for the GBP/USD bulls.
The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is underpinned by easing concerns over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position, especially after his Labour Party's heavy losses in English local elections and parliamentary votes in Scotland and Wales. Apart from this, the Bank of England's (BoE) hawkish signal that rate hikes could be appropriate if inflation remains persistent supports the GBP/USD pair.
Moving ahead, there isn't any relevant market moving economic data due on Monday, leaving spot prices at the mercy of the USD and incoming geopolitical headlines. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop, along with the recent range-bound price action witnessed over the past week or so, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further gains.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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