EUR/USD fails to breach 1.1570 despite US Dollar’s weakness

• EUR/USD bounces up from lows near 1.1505, but fails to find acceptance above 1.1570.
• Hopes of a peace deal in Iran have undermined the safe-haven US Dollar on Monday.
• In the US calendar, all eyes are on the ISM Services PMI release.

The Euro (EUR) is trading higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, favoured by a moderate improvement in market sentiment, amid news of a potential ceasefire in the Iran war. The pair bounced up from session lows at 1.1505, but has been unable to extend gains beyond 1.1570 so far, and remains trapped within last week’s trading ranges.

Investors have reacted with moderate enthusiasm to reports that the US and Iran have received a plan for a 45-day ceasefire, which might end hostilities immediately and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The market, however, remains cautious after US President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to destroy Iranian civilian infrastructure and energy sites if they failed to reopen Hormuz before Tuesday at 8 PM Easter Time (00:00 GMT).

On the macroeconomic front, the US Nonfarm Payrolls report released last Friday showed a 178K increase in net employment in March, beating expectations of a 60K rise. On Monday, with most markets closed on Easter Monday, the focus is on the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Services activity is expected to have slowed down moderately in March, but still at levels consistent with a healthy expansion

Technical Analysis: Choppy, rangebound trading

EUR/USD is hovering at the mid-range of the 1.1500s, with the near-term bias neutral with a slight downside tilt. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases to levels near the 50 mdline, suggesting a cooling momentum while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line retreats toward the signal line around the zero area, with the histogram contracting, which reinforces a loss of directional conviction.

Immediate resistance is now set at the 1.1570 area, which closes the path towards the late March and early April highs, between 1.1630 and 1.1640. Further up, the target is the March 10 high, at 1.1667.

On the downside, initial support is at the session low, right above 1.1500, ahead of the March 19 and 30 lows near 1.1445 and the mid-March lows at the 1.1410 area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)