USD/JPY Price Forecast: Testing consolidation breakout near 158.00
- USD/JPY declines to near 158.35 amid verbal warnings of Japan's intervention.
- Japan’s Katayama said that all options are available to counter excessive one-way moves against Yen.
- Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged this month.
The USD/JPY pair trades 0.18% lower to near 158.35 during the early European trading session on Friday. The pair has come under pressure as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens on verbal warnings of intervention by Japan to counter one-way excessive moves.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.03% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.05% | -0.08% | -0.33% | -0.13% | |
| EUR | 0.03% | -0.02% | -0.13% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.29% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.11% | 0.00% | -0.02% | -0.27% | -0.07% | |
| JPY | 0.16% | 0.13% | 0.11% | 0.13% | 0.08% | -0.17% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.01% | -0.13% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | 0.08% | 0.04% | 0.02% | -0.08% | 0.05% | -0.25% | -0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.33% | 0.29% | 0.27% | 0.17% | 0.30% | 0.25% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.13% | 0.09% | 0.07% | -0.03% | 0.09% | 0.04% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Earlier in the day, Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that all options, including direct currency intervention, are available for dealing with the recent weakness in the JPY.
Early this week, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said that Japan needs sound formulation and communication of monetary policy, after meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.
However, the broader outlook of the JPY remains uncertain as investors expect Japan to follow looser fiscal policy this year to stimulate economic growth.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ticks down ahead of an extended weekend in the US, but is broadly firm as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to hold interest rates steady in the policy meeting later this month.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USD/JPY corrects on Friday to near 158.00, testing the breakout region of the consolidation formed in the range between 154.40 and 157.90 in the last two months.
Price holds above the rising 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 157.33, keeping the near-term uptrend intact. The 20-day EMA's steady upslope underscores sustained buying pressure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 (bullish) after easing from an overbought reading supports trend continuation as momentum normalizes.
While above the 20-day EMA, the pair would remain biased higher, with pullbacks expected to be supported at that moving average. RSI near 62 leaves room for further upside before overbought conditions re-emerge. A daily close below 157.33 would shift the bias toward a deeper retracement, whereas holding above it preserves the advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
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