When is the UK CPI inflation data and how could it affect GBP/USD?
The UK CPI Overview
The United Kingdom (UK) Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the highly relevant Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November on Wednesday at 07:00 GMT.
The UK headline Consumer Price Index is forecast to have eased to a 3.5% year-over-year (YoY) in November from the 3.6% seen in October. Meanwhile, Monthly inflation is expected to be flat at 0% after rising 0.4% in October.
The UK core CPI, considered more relevant for the central bank, as it strips off the seasonal impact of food and energy prices, is expected to remain consistent at a 3.4% YoY rise in November.
How could the UK CPI affect GBP/USD?
GBP/USD is likely to stay subdued if UK CPI meets expectations. However, any upside surprise could cap losses by tempering dovish sentiment ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy decision on Thursday. The BoE is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, as rising unemployment and economic stagnation ease inflation pressures. Traders will also observe UK Retail Sales and PPI Core Output data.
The GBP/USD pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) advances after mixed US labor market data for November did little to reinforce expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool suggests that Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 74.4% chance of a hold in rates at the US central bank's next meeting in January, up from nearly 70% a week ago.
Technically, the GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3390 at the time of writing. Daily chart analysis points to a sustained bullish bias, with the pair holding within an ascending channel and the 14-day RSI remaining above 50. The pair may explore the resistance region around the 13-week high of 1.3536. On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.3662, followed by the psychological level of 1.3300, aligned with the 50-day EMA at 1.3295.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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