GBP/USD rebounds as traders twist strong NFP into fresh Fed-cut hopes

• US economy adds 119K jobs in September, pushing Fed cut odds to 43% despite unemployment ticking up to 4.4%.
• Hawkish Fed officials warn against easing prematurely, while UK inflation and confidence slump bolster BoE cut bets.
• Diverging December policy paths—Fed on hold, BoE cutting—suggest GBP/USD may resume its broader downtrend.

The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session following the release of a stellar Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for September, which revealed the economy added more people to the workforce than expected. the GBP/USD trades at 1.3117 after reaching a daily low of 1.3037.

Sterling trims losses as robust NFP and firmer labor signals lift December Fed cut expectations, while softer UK data weighs

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that 119K jobs were created in September. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate edged up from 4.3% to 4.4%, though it remained below the Federal Reserve’s projection of 4.5% for 2025. The Department of Labor also revealed Jobless Claims for the week ending November 15, came at 220K, its lowest level since September, an indication that the labor market despite softening, remains stable.

After the data, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that investors priced a 43% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut, up from 29% before the NFP release.

Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that easing monetary policy now could encourage financial risk taking. “Cutting rates risks prolonging high inflation,” and added that “financial conditions are ‘quite accommodative’ right now.”

Recently, Fed Governor Michael Barr said that he is concerned about inflation still at 3%, leaning hawkish.

In the UK, headline and core inflation edged lower and could push Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey to opt for a rate cut at the December meeting. Data-wise, UK Consumer Confidence tumbled ahead of Chancellor Reeves’ budget.

The British Retail Consortium wrote as government hints about higher income tax in this month’s budget, caused people to worry about the economy and their personal finances, according to Bloomberg.

Therefore, further GBP/USD downside is seen, as central banks would diverge in December. If the Fed holds and the BoE cuts, the exchange rate could resume its downtrend.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD trims some of Wednesday’s losses, yet the trend remains downward biased. Although the FXS Fed Sentiment Index remains above 100 indicating that the BoE remains slightly hawkish, suggesting further Sterling strength, it has edged lower. Therefore, the ongoing leg-up could be short lived, unless buyers clear key resistance at 1.3215, the November 13 high.

On the flip side, if GBP/USD drops below 1.3100, sellers could challenge the November 5 swing low of 1.3010.