Social Security's 2026 COLA Could Be the Worst in Years, but Millions of Retirees Will Get a Big Financial Boost Anyway

Key Points

• The 2026 annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could come in light again based on recent data.

• As inflation has slowed, COLAs have come down in recent years.

• However, millions of retirees who are at least 65 should see significant savings from recent legislation.

• The $23,760 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook ›

Each year, millions of retirees wait anxiously for the Social Security Administration (SSA) to announce the new annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). The COLA determines how much Social Security benefits will increase the following year and helps retirees, many of whom rely on Social Security for all or a significant part of their income, budget for the following year.

While it's still months before the 2026 COLA is announced, recent data suggests retirees could be looking at the lowest COLA in years. However, millions of retirees will get a big financial boost anyway.

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Recent inflation data coming in soft

The COLA is always determined based on inflation data from the third quarter of each year. Unlike the broader market, which relies heavily each month on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), the SSA relies on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). While the CPI measures the change in prices for 93% of the U.S. population, the CPI-W only covers about 29% of the population and measures expenses more common to the blue-collar workforce.

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To calculate the following year's COLA, the SSA looks at the year-over-year percentage change for the average CPI-W in July, August, and September. Here are the last four COLAs:

• 2022: 5.9%
• 2023: 8.7%
• 2024: 3.2%
• 2025: 2.5%

In recent months, data has pointed to slowing inflation. The monthly year-over-year change in the CPI-W has gone from 2.97% in January to 2.17% in May. There's still time before the data that actually counts toward the COLA comes into play, and factors like tariffs have the potential to make inflation change course.

But if the CPI-W stays on its current trajectory, retirees are looking at the worst COLA in five years. COLAs are a bit of a double-edged sword because retirees also benefit from a cheaper cost of living, but many argue that COLAs have not been able to keep pace with inflation since the turn of the century.

Even with a low COLA, millions will still get a big boost next year

Recently, another factor will come into play that's going to help people who are at least 65 years old: President Donald Trump's "big, beautiful bill," a large budget reconciliation package. The primary goal of the legislation is to pass trillions in tax cuts and allocate funds for border security, but such a large bill includes many other provisions.

The big one for retirees is a $6,000 additional senior tax deduction, or $12,000 for joint filers. To be clear, this is not aimed specifically at retirees collecting Social Security but anyone who is 65 or older, regardless of whether or not they receive Social Security benefits. To be eligible for the full deduction, single filers can make no more than $75,000, while joint filers can make no more than $150,000. The deduction completely phases out at $175,000 for single filers and $250,000 for joint filers.

According to an analysis conducted by the White House's Council of Economic Advisers, the bonus deduction stands to benefit millions of Americans who receive Social Security benefits and pay taxes on them.

Citing U.S. Treasury data, the Council found there were 58.5 million people age 65 and over receiving Social Security benefits in 2024. Of this group, 37.4 million received exemptions and deductions that exceeded their taxable Social Security income. With the new bonus deduction, this number will jump by over 14 million to 51.4 million, representing 88% of beneficiaries who are 65 or older and receiving Social Security.

The deduction is temporary. It will go into effect next year (for the 2025 tax bill) and last through the 2028 year's taxes. The tax savings for a married couple with $100,000 of income could be roughly $1,600 per year, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The average monthly benefit of a retired worker in May was $2,002, or about $24,024 a year. Assuming both people in a marriage receive that benefit (for a total of $48,048), the savings will amount to roughly 3.3% of the married couple's combined average benefits. That is equal to the average COLA since 1975 and above the average 2.6% COLA since the turn of the century. Remember, these savings are in addition to the 2026 COLA, whatever it ends up being.

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