Is UnitedHealth Group Stock a Brilliant Bad News Buy?

A healthcare giant. One of only 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. A longtime investors' favorite. UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) is all those things. However, it's also now a big loser.

Shares of UnitedHealth Group have plunged more than 50% below the peak achieved late last year. Problems have hit the world's largest health insurer wave after wave. In March, every analyst surveyed by LSEG rated UnitedHealth Group as a "buy" or "strong buy." Today, some recommend selling. But is UnitedHealth Group stock instead a brilliant bad news buy?

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One thing after another

UnitedHealth Group's challenges began last year. The company experienced a cyberattack in February 2024 that ultimately cost more than $2 billion. It disappointed investors with the outlook provided in the third-quarter update in October. In December, Brian Thompson, CEO of UnitedHealthcare, was shot and killed in New York City. The crime was allegedly due to the accused killer's anger at health insurers.

More bad news came in 2025. UnitedHealth Group reported lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings in April. The company lowered its full-year earnings guidance, citing higher Medicare Advantage costs and "unanticipated changes" in Optum's Medicare membership.

However, the situation soon went from bad to worse. In May, UnitedHealth Group suspended its 2025 outlook. The company said that "care activity continued to accelerate" and that the medical costs of new Medicare Advantage members were higher than expected. At the same time, UnitedHealth announced the abrupt departure of CEO Andrew Witty "for personal reasons."

And that wasn't all. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) had launched a criminal investigation into UnitedHealth Group for potential Medicare fraud. President Donald Trump also said during a press conference that he intends to "cut out the middleman" with prescription drugs, a reference to pharmacy benefits managers (PBMs). UnitedHealth Group's OptumRx ranks as the second-largest PBM.

Temporary issues?

With all this bad news, it's no surprise that UnitedHealth Group's share price has sunk like a brick. However, several of the company's issues could be only temporary.

For example, UnitedHealth Group appears to have moved past the difficulties caused by the cyberattack last year. Insurers have a simple mechanism for addressing higher medical costs: They raise premiums. The higher costs might weigh on earnings over the short term, but profits should rebound relatively quickly. It's a similar story with membership changes that negatively affect financial results in the short term.

UnitedHealth Group stated in a press release that it "expects to return to growth in 2026." I think that's a realistic view.

What about the DOJ investigation? UnitedHealth Group pushed back against The Wall Street Journal article, stating, "We have not been notified by the Department of Justice of the supposed criminal investigation reported, without official attribution." The DOJ hasn't publicly commented on any investigation of UnitedHealth Group.

The company's CEO turnover isn't troubling to me. UnitedHealth Group immediately replaced Witty with Stephen Hemsley, who served as CEO from 2006 through 2017 and remains its chairman of the board of directors. Hemsley knows the business inside and out. I suspect he'll provide the steady leadership UnitedHealth Group needs.

A brilliant bad news buy?

You might have noticed that I didn't include President Trump's desire to "cut out the middleman" in the discussion of UnitedHealth Group's temporary issues. In my opinion, the threat to PBMs is the company's biggest problem. And it's not a temporary one.

That said, I wouldn't bet on PBMs disappearing anytime soon. I also think a strong argument can be made that UnitedHealth Group's problems are fully baked into its share price, with the stock trading at its lowest price-to-earnings multiple in more than a decade.

Is UnitedHealth Group out of the woods yet? No. However, this beleaguered healthcare stock could be a brilliant bad news buy for patient investors.

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Keith Speights has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends UnitedHealth Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.