Tesla Stock Investors: Elon Musk Expects 99% Market Share in This Trillion-Dollar Industry

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported dismal financial results in the first quarter. Every metric of consequence -- deliveries, revenue, operating margin, and earnings -- declined as the company lost market share across China, Europe, and the United States.

But CEO Elon Musk still had good news for shareholders on the earnings call. Tesla is on track to launch its first robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, by June, and Musk predicted the company would eventually have "99% market share or something ridiculous."

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Here's what investors should know.

Image source: Tesla.

Several industry experts think autonomous ride-sharing will be a trillion-dollar market

Autonomous driving technology promises to revolutionize mobility by replacing human drivers with artificial intelligence (AI) software, which should improve safety and reduce costs. Straits Research says the ride-sharing market will exceed $820 billion in 2033, but some industry experts think cost efficiencies arising from robotaxis will ultimately result in a bigger market by encouraging more people to participate.

For instance, Morgan Stanley recently wrote, "Assuming that the autonomous providers are paid per mile that they drive, the industry could have an addressable market of over $1 trillion per year just in the U.S." Similarly, Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi recently said, "The U.S. market alone is a trillion-dollar opportunity." And Ark Invest thinks the global robotaxi market will reach $11 trillion by 2030.

Waymo is currently the market leader, but Musk expects Tesla to dominate the robotaxi market

Alphabet subsidiary Waymo is currently the market leader in autonomous ride-sharing. It first commercialized robotaxi services in Phoenix in 2020 and has since expanded to San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin. Waymo will launch in Atlanta later this year, with additional launches in Miami and Washington, D.C., scheduled for 2026. The company currently provides 250,000 rides per week in the U.S.

Comparatively, Tesla will launch its first autonomous ride-sharing service in Austin by June, followed by other U.S. cities shortly thereafter. While Waymo has a formidable head start, Elon Musk thinks Tesla will eventually have 99% market share. His confidence is based on the data advantage derived from having millions of sensor-equipped cars on the road and the scalability of its full self-driving (FSD) platform.

"The more training data you have, the better the results," Musk told analysts on an earnings call in 2023. "Tesla has more vehicles on the road that are collecting this data than all of the other companies combined." That advantage should theoretically let the company develop superior AI models for its autonomous driving software.

Also, Waymos are equipped with numerous sensors -- cameras, radar, lidar, and audio receivers -- that increase costs and limit scalability. Equipment alone on the fifth-generation robotaxis costs as much as $100,000, according to Waymo CEO Dmitri Dolgov. Additionally, lidar requires the company to meticulously map each city before its robotaxis can navigate the streets. That means Waymo cannot simply launch in a new city without considerable work beforehand.

Comparatively, Tesla says its Cybercab (a dedicated robotaxi) will cost less than $30,000 because its FSD platform is powered only by cameras and computer vision. That approach is also more scalable. Once FSD is perfected, Tesla should be able to push updates to cars in any metropolitan area and commence robotaxi operations immediately. That explains why Musk believes the company will eventually dominate the market.

Having said that, investors should bear in mind that Tesla has frequently overpromised and underdelivered. In 2019, Musk predicted the company would have a million robotaxis on the road in the next year. Five years have passed, and Tesla has yet to put a single driverless taxi on the road, but this time could be different. Musk says full autonomous rides are coming to Austin in June.

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Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Trevor Jennewine has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.