1 Way Tariffs Could Cripple GM for Investors

The markets received good news when it was announced that President Donald Trump would pause reciprocal tariffs on most countries for 90 days and is opting to implement a base 10% tariff on most goods. Automakers, however, didn't catch a break as the pause didn't extend to the 25% duty on vehicle imports.

Worse yet, the automotive industry is expected to get slapped with an additional 25% tariff on automotive parts next month. The problem for General Motors (NYSE: GM) investors is that this could force the company to change one thing it's done really well recently: buying back shares.

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Share buybacks

When it comes to share buybacks, General Motors has been in overdrive, eating up shares in recent years. Between 2023 and 2025, GM announced $16 billion in share buybacks, and it's had a significant impact on how the stock has traded. That's a huge amount when you consider that the Detroit automaker has a market capitalization of $45 billion. As GM started buying back large amounts of shares, you can see the impact on the stock price.

GM data by YCharts

The trend continues as GM just announced recently it approved a $0.03 per share increase to the dividend, or a 25% hike, and also a new $6 billion share repurchase authorization. Further, the automaker began an accelerated share repurchase program to execute $2 billion of the authorization in the near term.

Turbulent tariffs

Unfortunately, General Motors is perhaps the worst of its domestic peers to get hit by Trump's tariff plan. While it was recently announced that the reciprocal tariffs would be paused for most countries for 90 days, in favor of a base 10% tariff on most goods, the automotive tariffs were not included in that pause.

The reason behind GM's looming tariff pain is that while the company produces more than half of the vehicles that it sells in the U.S. domestically, only about a third of its vehicles are produced using American parts. That might not sound like a big deal, but take it from JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman:

We estimate GM imports ~$56 billion of vehicles annually from Mexico and Canada, which after adjusting for content originating in the U.S. may amount to ~$38 billion--subject to a ~$10 billion tariff under a 25% rate .... For parts, we estimate GM's share of the ~$92 billion imported by the industry may be ~$4 billion, implying a total tariff exposure of ~$14 billion before coping mechanisms.

GM's larger reliance on imports and parts created significant downside, causing Brinkman to lower his GM price target by $11, down to $53 per share. GM was trading at roughly $44 Thursday morning.

What it all means

The impact from tariffs shouldn't be underestimated and could become crippling, and it puts GM in a tough position. One option is to pause the share buybacks to conserve cash, or in a show of strength it could press on with its accelerated purchase program. Your guess is as good as mine what GM will do, and management has mentioned the company is exploring several options to mitigate tariffs.

For investors, however, the pause of reciprocal tariffs is an example of how quickly these developments can reverse course. As crippling as these tariffs may be in the near term, it would be wise not to make any knee-jerk reactions, and over the long term GM will almost certainly continue returning significant value to shareholders through share buybacks.

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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Daniel Miller has positions in General Motors. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.