Macro Analysts: Hawkish Japan Could Push Bitcoin Below $70K

• Analysts predict Bitcoin may face further declines towards the $70,000 mark if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates as expected.

• Previous rate hikes by the BoJ have consistently led to significant Bitcoin price corrections.

• New macroeconomic and technical signals corroborate potential bearish movements for Bitcoin.

Potential BoJ Rate Hike Poses Threat to Bitcoin Stability 

The Bank of Japan is poised to increase its benchmark interest rates this Friday and could herald turbulence for Bitcoin, a typically risky asset. According to several macro-focused analysts, should the BoJ proceed with a rate hike on December 19, Bitcoin might see continued downturns towards the crucial $70,000 level. The prospect of rising rates could pressure Bitcoin by limiting global liquidity, with technical indicators suggesting a converging target around the $70,000 downside.

Historical BoJ Hikes and Bitcoin Price Corrections

Data underscores a critical trend: each BoJ rate hike since 2024 has precipitated Bitcoin price corrections exceeding 20%. In an X social media post, analyst AndrewBTC cited Bitcoin declines of approximately 23% in March 2024, 26% in July 2024, and 31% in January 2025. These incidents underline potential risks should the BoJ increase rates on Friday. Notably, a recent Reuters poll indicated a majority expectation for another rate rise at December's policy meeting, suggesting a further possible impact on global liquidity.

Historically, BoJ rate hikes bolster the Japanese yen, increasing costs associated with borrowing and investments in higher-risk assets. This environment often forces traders to unwind yen carry trades, thereby curbing liquidity worldwide. As liquidity diminishes, Bitcoin faces additional pressure with investors dialing back leverage and exposure during market risk aversion. Analyst EX has projected that Bitcoin will “dump below $70,000” under these prevailing macroeconomic conditions.

Technical Analysis Points to $70,000 Bearish Target

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart reveals a concerning bearish pattern, mirroring a classic bear flag formation. This pattern developed subsequent to Bitcoin's sharp decline from the $105,000–$110,000 range in November, followed by a narrow, upward-sloping consolidation channel. Typically, such formations indicate a transient pause before trend continuation. A breakdown beneath the flag’s lower trendline could trigger a further descent, with a measured move eyeing the $70,000–$72,500 range. This analysis is echoed by multiple experts, including James Check and Sellén, who have set similar downside targets recently.

In summation, both macroeconomic trends and technical signals collectively indicate serious potential obstacles for Bitcoin if the BoJ adopts a more hawkish stance.