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A Little Good News for Ford Investors

Source The Motley Fool

Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) investors have had plenty of negative news to digest recently. 2024 was a bumpy ride as Ford had to grapple with higher warranty costs, advanced electric vehicles taking over the market in China, and crosstown rival General Motors seemingly thriving and raising guidance at every opportunity.

But investors potentially have a good piece of news to chew on: Competition for Ford's F-150 Lightning seems to be hitting a speed bump.

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Harsh words

From the first glimpse of Tesla's F-150 competitor, the Cybertruck, critics and fans alike noted the unique design that was aimed at taking over sales of Ford's historic and dominating F-150 name plate. It was an intriguing scenario, as onlookers wondered if historic Detroit truck dominance would filter down to EV nameplates, or would traditional gasoline truck consumer loyalty fade when it came to EV trucks?

While that answer will take time to fully answer, there have been mixed results when it comes to the numbers, but when it comes to critics, there wasn't much left to be said.

"I think the Cybertruck can be officially considered a flop now," said Karl Brauer, executive analyst at iSeeCars, according to Automotive News. "Remember, this was going to be Tesla's F-150. The new benchmark, foundational vehicle for the Tesla brand to keep it super powerful, super profitable and high volume."

Some other analysts were even harsher, with Bernstein analysts calling the Cybertruck a "bust": "We highlight Cybertruck as a massive strategic miscalculation and opportunity cost for Tesla, given that it took 4 years to develop, and inevitably diverted attention away from a lower priced offering, which Tesla is now in desperate need of," lead auto analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote, according to Yahoo! Finance.

Despite the harsh words and loud critics, the Cybertruck ended up as the fifth-most popular EV in the U.S. market last year with nearly 39,000 units sold. That was a good enough result to bump Ford's F-150 Lightning to sixth place with just over 33,500 units sold. And it was good enough to push Rivian's R1T outside of the top 10 with just under 11,100 units sold.

While the Cybertruck managed to edge out the F-150 Lightning in sales, there are subtle signs that demand for the unique Tesla offering is waning. According to CNBC, Tesla started offering discounts on new Cybertrucks, with discounts of $1,600 depending on trim level, and up to $2,600 for low-mileage demo versions.

There have been other signals that demand isn't as strong as investors would like. Tesla launched a leasing program for the Cybertruck, hoping to pass along some of the EV federal tax credit for leased vehicles, which don't have the same income and MSRP restrictions, for the full $7,500 tax credit.

Last October, according to Business Insider, factory workers had been sent home or given extra cleaning duties to fill scheduled work hours. Tesla was also said to have furloughed Cybertruck line workers in early December for a few days.

What it all means

For Ford and Rivian investors, these initial results, and early rumblings of waning demand, are a good sign for their respective products to remain competitive at the top of EV truck sales. Ford, especially, has less to fear of the Cybertruck's unique design than some had anticipated.

For Tesla investors, however, the doom and gloom is likely overblown to some degree. Even if the Cybertruck fails to live up to lofty expectations and early hype, Tesla itself is still dominating even if its global sales slightly pumped on the brakes in 2024. In fact, the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 alone generated 28.6% and 14.6%, respectively, of U.S. EV sales last year.

While the Cybertruck's demise is likely overblown, it's still a little good news for Ford and Rivian investors that it's clearly not going to take over anytime soon.

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Daniel Miller has positions in Ford Motor Company and General Motors. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends General Motors and recommends the following options: long January 2025 $25 calls on General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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