Where Will VTI Be in 2036? Here's What Decades of History Suggest.
Key Points
The U.S. stock market has delivered average annual returns of 10% for the past 98 years, despite major crises and crashes along the way.
The Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF has delivered a 14.53% annualized return over the past 10 years, doing even better than the long-term stock market average.
If you’re a long-term investor who can leave your money alone to grow for 10 years, the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF could be a great choice.
- 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF ›
If you want to invest in stocks, one of the best strategies is to just "buy all the stocks" with low-cost index funds. Among all the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that let you invest in the entire U.S. stock market, the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEMKT: VTI) is one of the best.
The U.S. stock market has been on a strong run for the past 10 years, and because VTI owns 3,515 stocks representing publicly traded American companies of all sizes, it has captured those broader gains. Over the past 10 years, the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF has delivered an average annual return of 14.53%, using recent prices.
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Let's see where VTI could be in 2036 based on past performance.
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Where will VTI be in 2036? (14.53% annualized returns)
Over the past 10 years, VTI has delivered an average annual return of 14.53% for investors. That means if you had invested $10,000 in VTI 10 years ago, you'd have $38,832 today (at recent prices).
There is no guarantee that this strong performance will continue. U.S. stocks might struggle to repeat that 10-year track record. There could be a bear market coming. But let's assume VTI can deliver the same 14.53% annualized returns for the next 10 years.
If you could invest $500 per month in VTI for the next 10 years and earn an average annual return of 14.53%, in 2036, you'd have $119,060 in 2036.
What if VTI does worse for the next 10 years? (10% annualized returns)
Even if the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF doesn't deliver the same strong 14.53% annualized returns for the next decade, it could still be a good choice for investors. Keep in mind that the U.S. stock market (as represented by the large-cap S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC)) has delivered average annual returns of about 10% for the past 98 years. That includes major stock market crashes and bear markets, such as the global financial crisis of 2008 and the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Even if VTI "only" delivers an average annual return of 10% for the next 10 years, $10,000 invested today would grow to $25,937 by 2036. An investment of $500 per month in VTI, earning an average annual return of 10%, would grow to $95,625 by 2036.
The stock market might underperform its long-term average. There are no guarantees. But based on the past 98 years of stock market results, long-term investors with a 10-year time horizon should generally feel confident buying the Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF as a low-cost way to build a diversified portfolio of U.S. stocks.
Should you buy stock in Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF right now?
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Ben Gran has positions in Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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