Prediction: Here's What a $5,000 Investment in Joby Aviation Will Be Worth in 3 Years

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), a developer of electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition (SPAC) company five years ago. Its stock opened at $10.62 on the first day, but it now trades at less than $7.

Joby's stock failed to take off because the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) hasn't approved its first commercial flights yet. But over the next three years, it could skyrocket.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

What are Joby's biggest advantages?

Joby's S4 eVTOL can carry a single pilot and four passengers, travel up to 150 miles on a single charge, and reach a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. Compared to helicopters, they're more environmentally friendly and easier to land in dense urban areas.

The S4 travels faster than many other eVTOLs, including Archer Aviation's (NYSE: ACHR) Midnight, because it uses single tilt rotor propellers for lifting and cruising. Other eVTOLs typically use separate propellers for both modes, making them heavier, slower, and less energy-efficient.

Unlike Archer, which produces eVTOLs for other aviation companies as an OEM, Joby aims to become a vertically integrated "transportation as a service" provider that manufactures, owns, and operates its own fleet through a first-party air taxi network. Joby also has a tighter supply chain than many of its peers because it primarily uses first-party components rather than third-party ones.

Joby's biggest supporters include Toyota (NYSE: TM), which will help mass-produce the S4; Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL), which will use the S4 to provide "airport-to-home" flights; and Uber (NYSE: UBER), which will integrate its flights into its new Uber Air service. Joby is also slightly ahead of Archer in the FAA's multi-stage certification process.

How much larger could Joby grow?

According to Fortune Business Insights, the global eVTOL market could expand at a 36.8% CAGR from 2026 to 2034. From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Joby's revenue to surge from $53 million (primarily from its defense contracts and early orders) to $435 million (as it launches its first commercial flights and expands its fleet).

But with a market cap of $6.8 billion, Joby is already valued at 16 times its 2028 sales. Archer, which is expected to grow its revenue from nearly nothing in 2025 to $512 million in 2028, is only valued at $4.5 billion -- or nine times its 2028 sales. Nevertheless, Joby's aforementioned advantages against Archer could justify its higher valuation.

However, analysts also expect Joby to remain unprofitable for the foreseeable future. It's also increased its share count by 63% since its market debut, and it will likely continue to dilute its investors as it burns more cash to ramp up its production. Its insiders have also sold more than 33 times as many shares as they bought over the past 12 months.

Where will Joby's stock be in three years?

Over the next three years, Joby will need to achieve a full FAA certification, launch its first commercial flights in the U.S., the UAE, and other international markets, fulfill its existing government contracts, and scale its contract manufacturing partnership with Toyota.

Assuming it matches Wall Street's estimates through 2028, doubles its revenue to $870 million in 2029, and trades at 16 times its current year's sales, its market cap could roughly double to $14 billion over the next three years. At a more bullish 20 times sales, its market cap could reach $17.4 billion by 2029 -- and rise even higher through the end of the decade.

Joby will remain a speculative stock, even after the FAA fully certifies its commercial flights. However, its early mover advantage in the nascent eVTOL market -- and its clear-cut advantages over competitors -- couold still make it a worthwhile investment for bold investors.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.