The Market's Most Feared Month Is Here. These 3 AI Stocks Have Survived It Before.
Key Points
Oracle investors might be rewarded for its huge backlog, not its earnings miss, but debt and customer concentration remain concerns.
Strong growth in AI chips might boost Broadcom, plus a major new customer gave investors confidence in future revenue.
This September, focus on real contracts, customers, and pricing power, not just AI hype like last year.
- 10 stocks we like better than Broadcom ›
September has earned its reputation. It is the only month with a negative long-run average return, down about 1.2% since 1928, and it finishes positive just 44% of the time. Four of the past five Septembers fell by an average of 4.2%.
But averages hide what actually happens. September is also when several of the largest AI companies report earnings, and a strong print in a weak month tends to produce outsize moves. Three names have already proven that.
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1. Oracle
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) had the single most dramatic September in recent memory. On Sept. 10, 2025, the stock rose 35.95% in one session, its best day since 1992, adding $244 billion in market value and pushing the company to $922 billion. Intraday, it touched a 43% gain.
The catalyst was not earnings, which it actually missed analysts' expectations. It was a backlog. Oracle disclosed remaining performance obligations of $455 billion, up 359% from a year earlier, driven by four multibillion-dollar contracts signed with three customers in a single quarter.
That is a useful lesson. Oracle rallied on contracted future revenue rather than reported profit, which is exactly the kind of disclosure that overrides seasonal sentiment. Also, Oracle's stock has fallen 56% from its peak, and while its AI cloud business is growing rapidly, investors should be worried about its $122 billion in debt and the heavy concentration of its $638 billion backlog among financially strained AI customers like OpenAI. I would wait for Oracle's next earnings report -- which is historically in September -- for more clarity on its backlog and debt before considering the stock a buy.
2. Broadcom
Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) reported its fiscal third-quarter results on Sept. 4, 2025, and the stock rose about 20% from pre-earnings levels. Revenue grew 22% to a record $16 billion, with AI chip revenue up 63% to $5.2 billion and free cash flow up 47% to $7 billion.
What moved the stock was the announcement of a new custom chip customer that was later revealed to be the AI start-up Anthropic. Broadcom's model depends on designing application-specific silicon for a small number of enormous buyers, so each new customer meaningfully changes the revenue trajectory rather than incrementally improving it.
Broadcom reports its fiscal third quarter again on Sept. 2 this year. These are important because its AI semiconductor revenue is expected to exceed $16 billion, driven by demand for custom AI chips.
3. Micron Technology
Micron (NASDAQ: MU) is the most cyclical of the three and the most exposed to a seasonal drawdown, which makes its record more interesting. The stock rose over 56% in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone and finished the year up 240%.
The driver is high bandwidth memory. Every AI accelerator needs it, supply has been tight, and pricing power shifted to manufacturers in a way that had not happened in prior memory cycles. Micron has scheduled its fiscal fourth quarter earnings report for Sept. 30, giving it the same catalyst structure as Oracle and Broadcom.
What actually matters here
None of these three names rallied because they were AI stocks. They rallied because each delivered a specific, verifiable disclosure during the month: contracted backlog, a new customer, and pricing power in a supply-constrained component.
That distinction matters this September, when hyperscaler capital expenditures have climbed to roughly 93% of operating cash flow and the circular financing underpinning much of the AI trade has drawn scrutiny. Companies with signed contracts and new customers have something to point at. Companies trading on narrative do not.
One technical filter is worth applying. When the S&P 500 enters September above its 200-day moving average, the average return flips to positive 1.3% with 60% of occurrences higher. Trend has historically mattered more than the calendar.
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Micah Zimmerman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom, Micron Technology, and Oracle. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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