Nvidia Just Gave a $267 Billion Warning That Micron Stock Could Crash Before 2029 Is Over

Over the last year, artificial intelligence (AI) memory stocks have been on fire. Expanding model sizes and more sophisticated agentic AI use cases are fueling a parallel boom between graphics processing units (GPUs) and the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) layered on top of these accelerators.

With its shares up by 697% over the last year, Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) has been one of the clearest beneficiaries of this memory boom. While the stock's parabolic ascent has been tough to ignore, some investors can't help but wonder when the memory trade will fade. After all, memory has historically been a highly cyclical market.

Well, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) may have just quietly signaled a tell about when Micron's business -- and its stock -- may peak and then begin to decline.

Image source: Micron Technology.

How to interpret Nvidia's supply and capacity commitments

In conjunction with its second-quarter earnings report, Nvidia's CFO commentary included a table outlining future supply and capacity commitments. "Our commitments increased from $119 billion last quarter to $279 billion, primarily related to the procurement of memory," she wrote.

Per Nvidia's forecast, the company has committed to lay out money for memory and other supplies along the following time frame:

• Remainder of fiscal 2027: $92 billion.
• Fiscal 2028: $87 billion.
• Fiscal 2029: $88 billion.
• Fiscal 2030: $6 billion.
• Fiscal 2031: $5 billion.
• Fiscal 2032+: $1 billion.

Investors can see that Nvidia is budgeting $267 billion on memory through the company's fiscal 2029 (which ends January 2030). Let's make one thing clear: Nvidia's purchase orders do not all translate into revenue for Micron. First, some of these funds will go toward other types of components and supplies. But in the tight memory market specifically, Nvidia works closely with the other two major players in the space, SK Hynix and Samsung, both of which are leading producers of HBM and DRAM.

What Nvidia's commitments schedule underscores is that memory suppliers now demand multiyear visibility and commitments from large buyers. For now, Nvidia has given them roughly three years of it. Fiscal 2030 is where Nvidia's leverage as a customer could become more evident. What I mean by that is Nvidia may not need to lock in HBM purchases for 2030 at today's premium prices; hence, the company has not yet outlined meaningful spending deals beyond fiscal 2029.

Understanding fiscal year timelines

Nvidia's fiscal years end in January, while Micron's end in August. Nvidia's last certain year of meaningful memory spend will happen between February 2028 and January 2029. This period straddles the back of Micron's fiscal 2028 and the early part of its fiscal 2029.

One important thing to understand is that shipments lag commitments. This means Micron can still package products in the middle of 2029 against orders Nvidia already placed. With all of that said, it's fair to say Nvidia will still need memory beyond 2029. A lean order book is not concrete evidence that memory demand is destined to fall off a cliff by 2030.

Processors bought during the current data center build-out will eventually need upgrades and be replaced by new architectures. In turn, these AI accelerators will continue to require HBM stacks. That level of demand is what's not showing up in Nvidia's supply and capacity commitments right now.

This is the trap to be aware of: Micron's revenue can -- and probably will -- look fine while its underlying demand trends are potentially headed for a slowdown. Starting in February 2029, the memory story may hinge more on negotiations over volume and price than it does today. If HBM is still in short supply relative to demand, then Micron will have the negotiating power. If not, then Nvidia will be able to spend less even as it keeps designing new, more powerful processors with greater memory demand.

When could Micron stock begin to see some pressure?

Remember, markets are forward-looking. Investors are not going to wait until 2030 to assess whether the supply-and-demand dynamics have actually changed. With that said, markets also do not look three years ahead while earnings are still compounding, like they are for Micron. This is why the stock could continue to rise throughout 2027 and 2028 even though Nvidia's commitment table is already public knowledge. As of now, the memory supercycle still has years of contracted shipments locked in.

February 2029 is the moment Nvidia's low-commitment year moves inside the window where the market could actually change how it prices Micron. If Nvidia does in fact scale back its purchase orders, investors will stop applying a scarcity premium to the AI memory market. My prediction is that Micron stock could peak somewhere between December 2028 and January 2029 unless Nvidia ratchets up its commitments well ahead of fiscal 2030.

Ultimately, Nvidia's memory commitments -- and the lack of them after 2029 -- do not tell us for sure that the memory market will dry up by 2030. But unless Nvidia makes it explicit that it will need more HBM going into the next decade, and that it's paying shortage prices for that HBM, I'd expect a de-rating in Micron stock. More specifically, smart investors could start trimming their positions between December 2028 and January 2029, leaving the rest of the market holding the bag and fueling a sharper drawdown thereafter.

Adam Spatacco has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.