Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 2026 Earnings Preview: 92% Probability of a Beat, ±5.4% Options Swing, Breakout at $228

TradingKey - Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is scheduled to announce its second quarter 2026 results at around 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 15, with a conference call to follow an hour later at 8:30 AM ET. Investors have built high hopes before the company announces its numbers, seeing it rally to $231.01, a price that has broken over the $228.12 barrier which had served as resistance since June. In terms of technicals, the 50 EMA at $220.29, 100 EMA at $209.04 and Relative Strength Index near 72 support a constructive trend, with the RSI showing that the stock is almost getting overbought. 

Wall Street still anticipates Morgan Stanley reporting a strong second quarter with analysts anticipating around 16.9% growth year over year in revenue. Prediction markets currently place a 92.8% probability of the bank beating earnings. The market has also priced in a +/- 5.4% move following Morgan Stanley's second quarter results, higher than Morgan Stanley's own +/- 4.6% move historically.

Strong Q1 Created a High Benchmark

Morgan Stanley is reporting its earnings on the back of one of its best quarters ever in Q1 2026. The bank posted $20.6 billion of revenue compared to $17.7 billion in the same period last year, while earnings per share climbed to $3.43 from $2.60. ROTCE hit 27.1% reflecting very high profitability. Wealth Management was the strongest business with the division reporting $118 billion of net new assets, or $54 billion of fee flows, reinforcing the division's importance as the firm's most stable earnings engine.

Despite analysts projecting a slower second quarter sequentially, there still remains a consensus at between $19.6 billion and $20 billion. That would be one of the strongest second quarters in Morgan Stanley's history if achieved.

Why Analysts Expect Another Earnings Beat

Morgan Stanley has been consistently able to beat Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings. On average, the firm has beaten earnings estimates in roughly 81% of the last 40 quarters and the prediction markets currently give a 92.8% likelihood of Morgan Stanley delivering another earnings per share beat.

Just this week Bank of America analysts also raised its price target from $225 to $250, maintaining their Buy rating on the company with analysts citing the stability provided by Morgan Stanley's diversified model as the company is less focused on investment banking fees than its peers. The stock has also benefited from other major U.S. banks reporting better than expected results this week.

Three Key Areas Investors Will Watch

Beyond headline revenue and earnings figures, investors are expected to focus on wealth management flows, investment banking revenue and any updates on the possible OpenAI IPO. Morgan Stanley posted $118 billion of net new assets in Q1, demonstrating continued strength in asset gathering and client confidence in the bank, which should help management to achieve their goal of growing the asset base for more revenue. 

Morgan Stanley posted strong second quarter results, and the bank is still seen as one of the largest players in the investment banking field by a significant margin. With other major investment banks announcing better than expected results in their investment banking segments, expectations have increased for Morgan Stanley to post strong second quarter results as well.

Morgan Stanley has been cited as one of the likely candidates to underwrite an OpenAI IPO, in which it will compete with Goldman Sachs. Morgan Stanley management will be unlikely to explicitly acknowledge their status as a likely underwriter before the IPO has received regulatory approval. But, investors will carefully monitor the conversation around investment banking as positive guidance could become an important catalyst for earnings and the stock later this year.

MS Technical Outlook Before Earnings

Technically, Morgan Stanley arrived at earnings with positive momentum. A move higher than $228.12 last month broke a month-long consolidation pattern that put the stock back on course to make new gains from $228.12. The 50-day ($220.29) and 100-day ($209.04) Exponential Moving Average continue to point higher and buyers remain in control, albeit with a stretched RSI indicator.

Morgan Stanley (MS) Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

Next resistance is seen near $234.22. An earnings surprise above $234.22 could expose upside targets at $239.47 and $243.79. Conversely, a profit-taking reaction in a post-earnings selloff would see immediate selling near $228.12 before the next support level at $220.29 (the 50-day).

What Earnings Can We Expect From MS?

According to market consensus, Morgan Stanley should report between $19.6 billion and $20 billion in revenue in the current quarter. This would mark growth of 16.9% from the $16.8 billion reported in the same quarter last year.

Market prediction platforms are currently giving the company a 92.8% chance of topping earnings expectations this time around. Options markets are also betting that the stock will move by 5.4% in either direction in a post earnings session.

What Has MS Stock Done Pre-Earnings?

The financial services firm's stock rallied above $228.12 as market sentiment continued to improve following a strong quarter from other major US financial institutions. The bank's significant wealth management business, which relies less on investment banking and more on stable recurring advisory fees, distinguishes it from its peers. Improved conditions in the equity capital markets combined with this advantage contributed to bullish expectations heading into MS' earnings.

Why Does OpenAI IPO Matter to MS?

One of the possible underwriters for a future OpenAI IPO is Morgan Stanley.

Although the firm is not officially confirmed as an underwriter, a deal like this could generate significant advisory, structuring and underwriting revenue. This would also help bolster the firm's capital market position in tech, an area of interest to investors. Consequently, MS equity issuance guidance is likely to be key during the earnings announcement.

The Bottom Line

The financial services firm reported strong pre-earnings momentum as it broke above $228 and technical indicators remain favorable. MS has also seen growing confidence following the solid earnings reported by other financial institutions. Investors expect MS' revenues to grow by 16.9% year over year, while market prediction platforms currently give the bank a 92.8% chance of posting better-than-expected earnings. 

Options markets are also expecting the stock to make a 5.4% move in a post earnings session. The key will be wealth management asset flows and investment banking revenue, which could influence the next move in the bank's share price. Another critical point to watch is MS' capital markets guidance and the firm's interest in tech-related capital raises like the OpenAI IPO.