Could This Chinese Competitor Derail Joby's and Archer Aviation's Plans and Tank Their Stocks?

There's an old joke asking why we call freight that travels by car a "shipment," but freight that travels by ship is called "cargo."

Nobody ever asks what we call freight that travels by electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicle (eVTOL), and up until now, we haven't needed a word for it. That's in part because U.S.-based eVTOL startups including Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) and Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) are almost exclusively focusing on air taxi service for passengers, not freight.

But a crafty Chinese company has also been quietly pouring money into eVTOLs, and it just took a big step forward. Here's why this surprise competitor could be a big problem for Joby and Archer -- and their stockholders.

Image source: Joby Aviation.

A solution without a problem

Joby and Archer have primarily focused on eVTOLs as air taxis, envisioning them as short-haul transportation from urban centers to nearby airports, where passengers would presumably board an airplane for a longer flight to their ultimate destination. Both companies have highlighted how this approach would cut travel time to airports substantially.

But such services already exist in the form of helicopters, and even they are very expensive options. The eVTOLs may be quieter and environmentally friendlier than helicopters, but they're likely to cost much more up front, with uncertain maintenance costs thereafter.

Once the novelty wears off, will an air taxi business based on eVTOLs be sustainable?

An actual issue

Driving to the airport may be a hassle, but at least it's doable in most of the United States. But for many smaller communities in mountainous regions around the world, it's simply impossible because of a lack of infrastructure.

eVTOLs, which only require a small cleared area in which to land, could serve communities that lack airstrips or highway access. It's no surprise that the mountainous republics of Kazakhstan and Serbia are early customers of Joby's and Archer's, respectively. But even there, will there be a market for a four-passenger aircraft with a poky 100-mile range?

Enter Chinese company Autoflight. It has a different focus: Offer a heavy-duty freight eVTOL that can carry loads a passenger helicopter can't. Instead of being the final step in a three-step freight journey (by land from factory to airport, by plane to a different airport, then by eVTOL to a nearby destination), just transport the freight by eVTOL all the way from origin point to final destination, cutting loading and unloading costs and keeping all the proceeds, too.

Image source: Archer Aviation.

Bigger is better

It sure sounds like a better market than for air taxi service, and Autoflight just demonstrated its capability to pull it off.

In February, the company showcased a test flight of its Matrix V5000, which it claims is the world's first 5-ton eVTOL. (Joby's and Archer's four-passenger eVTOLs weigh in at about 2 to 3 tons each.) The Matrix can carry 1.5 tons of freight, but Autoflight also plans to build a passenger version that can carry up to 10 people.

It will offer an all-electric version with a range of about 155 miles, which is similar to Joby's eVTOL range and ahead of Archer's 100-mile range. But Autoflight is also developing a hybrid version that can fly up to 930 miles, which in theory could fly nonstop from New York to St. Louis, Dallas to Phoenix, or Seattle to Las Vegas. It could also fly more than halfway across Kazakhstan and all the way across Serbia and back again.

Joby, for its part, is also looking at longer-range options. It's partnering with defense contractor L3Harris (NYSE: LHX) to develop the S4-T, an autonomous hybrid eVTOL for defense. The S4-T is currently estimated to have a 575-mile range.

Economics of scale

By coming up with a unique practical application for eVTOLs, Autoflight could build a massive freight market that its Matrix V5000 would have all to itself. That demand could allow it to rapidly and economically scale up production of its passenger model, potentially at much more favorable economics of scale than Joby or Archer can manage.

The silver lining for shareholders of Autoflight's U.S. competitors is that it hasn't yet disclosed a price, terms, or an expected launch date for the Matrix V5000. That gives Joby and Archer the chance to beat Autoflight to market and scale up more quickly than their Chinese counterpart. But with U.S. eVTOLs mired in regulatory limbo, Joby and Archer shareholders should be very worried about this potential game-changing competitor.

John Bromels has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends L3Harris Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.