In 10 Years, Will You Wish You'd Bought Plug Power Stock Right Now?

Plug Power (NASDAQ: PLUG) stock is on the rise. Since 2026 began, shares of the hydrogen fuel company have increased in value by more than 30%.

Some investors, however, think the run has just begun, and certain analysts on Wall Street agree. Eric Stine, an analyst at Craig-Hallum, for example, has a $7 price target on Plug Power shares. That price target suggests more than 150% in potential upside. Stine reiterated his buy recommendation earlier this month.

Maybe shares will explode in value this year like Stine predicts. Or maybe the stock's rise will be spread over a number of years. Either way, will you regret not buying Plug Power stock a decade from now? You might be surprised by the answer.

Here's what to expect from Plug Power stock

To understand Plug Power's next decade, it's helpful to review what has happened over the previous decade. Past results may not have much to do with future results. But it's still a helpful gauge to understand the company's historical success and how that may feed into future endeavors.

Over the past 10 years, Plug Power stock has risen in value by roughly 35%. The S&P 500 index, meanwhile, is up more than 200% over the same time period. This underperformance occurred even as Plug Power's revenue grew by more than 20% annually, from $86 million in 2016 to more than $700 million in 2025.

This revenue growth was fueled by several factors. Ten years ago, revenue was mostly dominated by sales of Plug Power's GenDrive fuel-cell systems designed for for material-handling vehicles like forklifts. Over the years, the company has expanded its product lineup and now derives revenue not only from equipment sales, but also support services, power purchase agreements, and fuel deliveries.

Image source: Getty Images.

In short, Plug Power has invested heavily to become a more mature hydrogen ecosystem provider, not just a one trick pony. So in a way, Plug Power as a business has done terrifically over the past decade. Shareholders, meanwhile, have largely been left behind, especially when comparing the company's stock price versus broader market indexes.

Why the big disconnect? Arguably, the biggest drag has been shareholder dilution. Over the past 10 years, Plug Power's total share count has increased by an astounding 673%. That means a share purchased in 2016 represents only a fraction of its original ownership percentage today.

This share dilution was necessary because Plug Power has largely remained a money-losing business over the past decade. And despite a positive fourth quarter, analysts still expect the company to remain in the red for at least the next two fiscal years. In response, management has turned to asset sales, debt issuances, and more shareholder dilution to stay afloat.

I'm a fan of many climate change stocks. But I'm simply not an advocate of most hydrogen stocks. The technology is largely capital-intensive, with economic viability versus traditional fossil fuels not expected for years, if not decades.

Over the next decade, I expect to see a Plug Power that is far bigger than the current iteration, at least in terms of revenue. From an investing standpoint, I'd stay clear until the company is even somewhat financially sustainable without resorting to frequent, massive dilution of shareholder interests.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.