Ford Stock in 10 Years: Where Will It Be?

Ford (NYSE: F) was founded in 1903. Over the following 123 years, this Detroit car maker has been viewed as a symbol of American industrialism. The business employs 169,000 people worldwide, and it sold 2.2 million vehicles in the U.S. just last year.

Despite having what seems to be an important position in the broader economy, this automotive stock has been a wildly disappointing investment opportunity from a relative perspective. While the S&P 500 index has produced a total return of 300% in the past decade (as of April 16), this company's shares have generated a much lower total return of just 66%.

Is this the trend that investors should get used to? Or can the stock beat the market in the long run? Where will Ford be in 10 years?

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Focus on the things that will stay the same

A lot of things can happen in 10 years. Many companies undergo leadership changes, implement strategic pivots, launch new products, or enter new markets. This applies even to industries as slow-moving as the auto sector.

However, the best way to figure out Ford's trajectory over the next decade is to focus on what will stay the same. This can narrow our focus on the factors that matter most to long-term investors.

Ford will surely remain a low-growth business due to the maturity of the global car market and its legacy position. Its automotive sales in 2025 were just 24% higher than the total from 2015. Worldwide, the number of new vehicles sold in 2024 was about the same as seven years before in 2017.

On the profitability front, the picture gets bleaker. Like its mass market peers, Ford deals with a huge cost structure that doesn't allow for operational leverage to take hold. The company's adjusted operating margin was 3.6% in 2025, compared to an automotive margin of 6.8% in 2015.

Heightened competitive intensity and cyclicality are other variables that can keep Ford shareholders up at night. On the former, the notable success of foreign car manufacturers has made it difficult for this company to stand out in a crowded field. Because of the latter, Ford is particularly exposed to the ebbs and flows of the broader economic environment, due to how sizable vehicle purchases are.

Ford's lack of strong growth and profits, coupled with industry competition and fluctuating demand, are factors that will still plague the company a decade from now.

It's easy to have low expectations about Ford's business and stock

One of my strongest opinions about stock market investing is that if you're going to actively manage your portfolio, the main goal should be to try to outperform the market in the long run. Why put in the time and the effort if the plan isn't to generate robust returns? In my opinion, this generally means looking for stocks that have the potential to rise 15% or more annually over the long run, which can certainly be a high bar.

With that being said, you can understand why I don't view Ford as a favorable investment opportunity over the next decade. I think this auto stock will continue to lag the S&P 500 between now and 2036. This perspective is supported by the negative factors already mentioned that don't lend themselves to impressive fundamental results.

Assume that Ford's overall revenue grows by 24% over the next decade, the same pace as auto sales in the past 10 years. With no margin expansion, the company's earnings will rise at a similar low-single-digit annualized rate.

It helps that the stock trades at a cheap valuation, as there might be some upside if market sentiment improves. This is not a guaranteed outcome. So, if the current price-to-earnings ratio of 11.3 stays the same in 10 years, then Ford shares will sell for $15.43 at that time. Based on the current stock price of $12.44, this implies capital appreciation of 24%. This forecast is nothing to be excited about.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.