The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Inference Market Could Reach $255 Billion by 2030. This Stock Is Best Positioned to Win.

Artificial intelligence (AI) stock investors have earned massive returns. The best-performing stocks succeeded because they built a competitive advantage that other companies could not easily match, if they could match at all.

This means the industry has produced several winners, and that makes choosing the "best" one to succeed the most difficult. Nonetheless, that designation should arguably go to one AI stock, and here's why.

Image source: ASML.

The stock that is best positioned to win

Ultimately, the stock best positioned to win is likely ASML (NASDAQ: ASML). Admittedly, that may come as a surprise, particularly because the company bills itself as the "most important company you've never heard of." Also, if the focus is on AI inference, one may not immediately think about the semiconductor business.

However, such chips are essential for running inference models. Also, the more one hears about it, the stronger its competitive advantages appear. ASML is the leader in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). This technology makes the world's most advanced semiconductors possible, a necessary component of running AI inference models.

Additionally, its EUV machines cost as much as $400 million. Markets and Markets forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% for the AI inference market through 2030, meaning foundries will need more of those machines.

Also, given the cost of the machines, their owners must spend additional millions per year to maintain them. In 2025, about 23% of its net sales came from maintenance, with the remainder from equipment sales.

ASML's position in its market

In a direct sense, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), the company that claims 71% of the foundry market according to TrendForce, is ASML's primary EUV customer. Since TSMC is better known and also essential to AI inference, many assume it is in a stronger position to win.

Still, as previously mentioned, TSMC's production of the world's most advanced chips is not possible without ASML. Secondly, most of its production takes place in Taiwan. That places the company in the middle of a geopolitically contentious region, putting it in danger if fighting breaks out in the region.

In contrast, ASML produces its EUV machines in the Netherlands. This means it is thousands of miles away from the types of dangers TSMC faces.

Secondly, no company has effectively challenged ASML's EUV dominance. Amid sales restrictions on selling in China, that country has a strong incentive to offer competing EUV products, but so far, none of its companies have succeeded.

ASML as a winner

No AI company is in a stronger position to win than ASML.

Indeed, ASML suffers from a comparative lack of name recognition. Nonetheless, this pick-and-shovel trade is a foundational company in the industry, as neither TSMC nor any chip manufacturer could exist in their current forms without it.

ASML also has the added advantage of operating in a stable country that is far away from any potential conflicts. Finally, since no company can challenge it technically, ASML is best positioned to win in many parts of the AI industry, including inference.

Will Healy has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.