Alto (ALTO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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DATE

Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET

CALL PARTICIPANTS

• President and Chief Executive Officer — Bryon T. McGregor
• Chief Financial Officer — Robert R. Olander

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TAKEAWAYS

• Net income (Q4) -- $21.5 million, a $63.5 million improvement, driven by higher crush margins, qualified 45Z credits, and increased renewable fuel export sales.
• Adjusted EBITDA -- $27.9 million for Q4, up $35.6 million, attributed to gross profit growth and SG&A expense reductions (excluding $6.7 million excess Pekin dock insurance proceeds).
• Net sales -- $232 million, a $4 million decrease, reflecting 10.6 million fewer gallons sold due to idling the Magic Valley facility, partly offset by a higher sales price per gallon ($2.10, compared to $1.88 in the prior year).
• Gross profit (Q4) -- $15.2 million, an increase of $16.6 million, with $8 million from improved crush margin ($0.23/gallon versus $0.08), $5 million from premium-priced renewable fuel exports, $2.9 million from Oregon carbon credit sales, $2.6 million from reduced compensation, and $1.4 million from the Carbonic acquisition, offset by a $4.2 million net derivative loss.
• 45Z tax credit proceeds -- $7.5 million recorded for 2025 ($0.10/gallon net), with management projecting approximately $15 million net in 2026 based on $0.20/gallon qualifying volumes at Columbia and Pekin dry mill facilities.
• Western segment profitability -- Magic Valley idling and the Carbonic acquisition led Western production to positive gross profit for both the quarter and full year, with Western Essential Ingredients return reaching 48% from 30%.
• SG&A expenses -- $6.9 million, down $500,000, reflecting reductions in staffing and headcount from previous restructuring measures.
• Insurance proceeds -- $10 million for Pekin river dock damage (Q4 receipt), allocated as $1.5 million reduction to cost of goods sold, $1.8 million to other income, and $6.7 million as excess proceeds reserved for capital repairs.
• Debt reduction -- Term loan balance fell to $55 million at year-end, with $10 million repaid in February and another $6 million planned for March, targeting $39 million by Q1-end.
• Capital expenditure plan -- Roughly $25 million budgeted for 2026; 55% allocated to optimization projects (including Pekin dry mill capacity increase of 8%), 45% for maintenance, with dock repair and second dock build included.
• Export contracts -- Management stated that a significant volume of renewable fuel exports has been contracted for 2026, supporting visibility in premium international markets.
• Production expansion -- Pekin dry mill capacity project scheduled to increase by approximately 8%, or about 5 million gallons, to qualify for additional 45Z credits.

SUMMARY

Management discontinued active marketing of the Columbia facility following improved financial performance and integration of Alto Carbonic, signaling a strategic emphasis on operating rather than liquidating that asset. The company completed restructuring, eliminating persistent losses from underperforming businesses and strengthening operational cost discipline. Insurance proceeds related to the Pekin dock enabled fully funded repairs and capital upgrades without operational cash flow impact. Regulatory changes to the GREET model, specifically ILUC removal, are expected to double per-gallon 45Z eligibility at key facilities and drive incremental tax credit income. Management flagged river logistics disruptions and curtailed production in January due to extreme cold, but opportunistically advanced planned repairs, deferring remaining wet mill work to 2027 and anticipating full production recovery in the subsequent quarter.

• Strategic review of the Magic Valley facility remains active, with options including sale, restart for 45Z credit capture, and expanded CO2 monetization.
• Management is assessing large-scale CO2 utilization and sequestration opportunities at the Pekin campus to enhance returns on CO2 byproducts.
• Pekin wet mill and ICP do not currently qualify for 45Z credits, but management highlighted advantages in serving a variety of domestic and export markets with product mix and premium pricing in both channels.
• Management confirmed 2026 plans anticipate normal Q2 outages at ICP and Columbia consistent with those in 2025, but expect limited operational impact overall as capacity projects and repairs proceed.
• On traceability for 45Z eligibility, management acknowledged some work remains around incentivizing farmers, highlighting partial compliance with Treasury proposals.
• Persistent regulatory progress on E15 gasoline blend adoption is seen by management as a meaningful long-term demand tailwind for ethanol.

INDUSTRY GLOSSARY

• Crush margin: The per-gallon profit margin between the price of ethanol plus co-products and the cost of corn and natural gas inputs.
• GREET model: The U.S. Department of Energy’s Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation model, used for calculating the carbon intensity of fuels.
• 45Z credit: A U.S. federal tax credit under Section 45Z for production of low-carbon transportation fuel, based on qualifying gallons and carbon intensity score.
• ILUC: Indirect Land Use Change, a carbon intensity factor in biofuel greenhouse gas calculation models.
• ICP: Illinois Corn Processing, an Alto production facility focused on specialty alcohols.

Full Conference Call Transcript

Operator: Good day, and welcome to the Alto Ingredients, Inc. fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone, and to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Harriet C. Fried of Alliance Advisors. Please go ahead.

Harriet C. Fried: Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us today for the Alto Ingredients, Inc. fourth quarter and year-end 2025 results conference call. On the call today are President and CEO, Bryon T. McGregor, and CFO, Robert R. Olander. Alto Ingredients, Inc. issued a press release after the market closed today providing details of the company's financial results for 2025. The company also prepared a presentation for today's call that is available on its website at altoingredients.com. A webcast and a webcast replay will be available on the company's website. Please note that the information on this call speaks only as of today, March 4, 2026.

You are advised that time-sensitive information may no longer be accurate at the time of any replay. Please refer to the company's safe harbor statement in the slide deck posted to the company's website, which states that some of the comments in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements and considerations that involve risks and uncertainties. The actual future results of Alto Ingredients, Inc. could differ materially from those statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, events, risks, and other factors previously and from time to time disclosed in Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s filings with the SEC. Except as required by applicable law, the company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

In management's prepared remarks, non-GAAP measures will be referenced. Management uses these non-GAAP measures to monitor the financial performance of operations and believes these measures will assist investors in assessing the company's performance for the periods reported. The company defines adjusted EBITDA as unaudited consolidated net income or loss before interest expense, interest income, provision or benefit for income taxes, asset impairments, unrealized derivative gains and losses, excess insurance proceeds, acquisition-related expense or recoveries, and depreciation and amortization expense. To support the company's review of non-GAAP information, a reconciling table has been included in today's release. On today's call, Bryon will provide a review of the company's strategic plan and activities. Robert will comment on its financial results.

Then Bryon will wrap up and open the call for Q&A. It is now my pleasure to introduce Bryon T. McGregor. Bryon, go ahead, please.

Bryon T. McGregor: Thank you, Harriet, and thank you all for joining us today. I will begin with a quick review of our fourth quarter results and achievements, after which I will turn the call over to Robert for more details on our numbers. After that, I will give you an overview of our major initiatives for 2026 and the opportunities we are seeing in our markets. We will then open the call for Q&A. The fourth quarter capped a year of strong execution, and it was a pivotal milestone in our strategic realignment. Entering the year, we made tactical decisions to focus on opportunities that were within our control to maximize earnings.

We adjusted staffing to align with our current organizational footprint, captured cost savings, invested in the throughput and efficiency of our plants, culled underperforming business activities in our Marketing and Distribution segment, and maintained operational disciplines in support of our diversification efforts. Earnings for the fourth quarter were $21,000,000, a $63,000,000 improvement compared to 2024. For the full year 2025, earnings were $12,000,000, a $72,000,000 improvement. Further, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $28,000,000, a $36,000,000 positive swing from last year. For 2025, adjusted EBITDA grew to $45,000,000, a $53,000,000 improvement compared to 2024.

Increased crush margins, qualified 45Z credits, and strong renewable fuel export sales were major contributors to improved performance for both the quarter and the full year. Our Carbonic acquisition in early 2025 is a perfect example of our focused strategy. This acquisition and the resultant diversification into liquid CO2 improved the profitability of our Columbia ethanol plant. Alto Carbonic also contributed positively to the profitability in our Western segment for both the fourth quarter and for all of 2025. Further, we made significant progress in determining the amount of 45Z transferable tax credits for 2025 and associated incremental earnings.

We expect to qualify approximately 90,000,000 gallons of combined production on an annual basis for 45Z credits at our Columbia and our Pekin dry mill facilities. In the fourth quarter, we recorded for the full year $7,500,000 in 45Z credit earnings, or $0.10 per gallon net of estimated monetization costs. For 2026, with the removal of the indirect land use change (ILUC) from the GREET model, we expect to qualify for $0.20 per gallon at our Columbia and Pekin dry mill facilities and to generate approximately $15,000,000 in net proceeds. We continue to pursue opportunities to lower our carbon scores further.

The Pekin wet mill and ICP do not currently qualify for these credits but are advantaged to serve a variety of domestic and export markets, which are predominantly sold at a premium to ethanol. Finally, with respect to our Western asset optimization and monetization plan, as I mentioned on last quarter's call, current market conditions, including operational improvements, together with the positive impact of our Alto Carbonic acquisition, materially changed the calculus for simply selling the facility. Given Columbia's improved profitability, we are no longer actively marketing the asset.

We continue, however, to evaluate all options for our Magic Valley facility, including selling the plant as well as restarting and capturing 45Z credits and monetizing the valuable CO2 the facility would produce. In summary, we are pleased with our Q4 and full-year results that demonstrate the successful execution of our strategic realignment. I will now turn the call over to Robert for a more detailed review of our financial performance. Robert?

Robert R. Olander: Thank you, Bryon. Thank you. First, I would like to review the financial results for 2025 compared to 2024. Net sales were $232,000,000, $4,000,000 lower than in the prior year. This reflects a reduction in volume sold of 10,600,000 gallons, primarily due to our decision to idle our Magic Valley facility in 2024. On a consolidated basis, the average sales price per gallon increased to $2.10 from $1.88 per gallon, partially offsetting the reduction in volume sold. Gross profit for Q4 2025 was $15,200,000, a significant increase of $16,600,000 compared to Q4 2024's gross loss of $1,400,000. The significant improvement in gross profit was due to the following drivers.

Stronger market crush margin of $0.23 per gallon in Q4 2025 compared to $0.08 per gallon in 2024 accounted for approximately $8,000,000. An increase in renewable fuel export sales at premiums to domestic sales contributed $5,000,000 on a higher volume and higher average sales price per gallon. We realized $2,600,000 less in compensation costs for the quarter related to the staffing reduction implemented earlier in the year, including the impact of idling our Magic Valley plant and a gain on our annual pension valuation adjustment. The sale of Oregon carbon credits contributed an additional $2,900,000 on improved market pricing.

We continued to benefit from our Carbonic acquisition, which we completed in 2025, as it contributed $1,400,000 to our Western production segment during the quarter. With the idling of Magic Valley, this segment had a positive gross profit for the quarter and the full year. With high-value liquid CO2 now in our product mix, our Western Essential Ingredients return improved to 48% in the fourth quarter from 30% a year ago and contributed to an increase in our consolidated return to 52% from 43%. Partially offsetting these positives was a net negative $4,200,000 in combined realized and unrealized changes in derivatives. SG&A expenses decreased by $500,000 to $6,900,000.

Once again, this is attributable to right-sizing staffing levels in the first half of the year. As you may recall, in 2024, we recorded the final acquisition-related expenses for Eagle Alcohol of $5,700,000 and $24,800,000 of impairment charges related to Magic Valley and Eagle Alcohol, both of which were excluded from adjusted EBITDA. In 2025, we recorded $800,000 of asset impairment charges related to the cleanup of CapEx projects. As discussed on prior calls, in April 2025, we sustained damage to our Pekin Campus river loading dock. After filing an insurance claim with our carrier, in Q4, we received our maximum insurance coverage payment of $10,000,000.

Of these proceeds, $1,500,000 was recorded as a reduction to cost of goods sold as a reimbursement for previously recorded expenses, $1,800,000 was recorded in other income for lost profits related to the business interruption, and the remaining $6,700,000 of income was recorded as excess insurance proceeds in accordance with GAAP, which will be used to fund repairs and improvements in 2026. Since the excess proceeds were not related to operations, we excluded this gain from our calculation of adjusted EBITDA. As Bryon mentioned, we made significant progress in qualifying for 45Z credits and are entering into contracts to sell these credits to third parties.

The expected proceeds from selling the 2025 credits are $7,500,000 net of selling costs, which directly strengthened our bottom line in the fourth quarter. The combination of improved gross profit, lower SG&A expenses, recognition of 45Z tax credits, and the excess insurance proceeds resulted in net income attributable to common stockholders of $21,500,000, or $0.28 per diluted share, for Q4 2025, an increase of $63,500,000 compared to Q4 2024. For the year, net income attributable to common stockholders was $12,100,000, or $0.16 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $60,300,000, or $0.82 per share.

Adjusted EBITDA increased $35,600,000 to $27,900,000 for Q4 2025, compared to a negative adjusted EBITDA of $7,700,000 for Q4 2024, reflecting the above-mentioned improvements in gross profit and SG&A but excluding the $6,700,000 in excess insurance proceeds. And for the year, adjusted EBITDA was $44,700,000, an improvement of $53,200,000 compared to negative adjusted EBITDA of $8,500,000 for 2024. Turning to our balance sheet, as of 12/31/2025, our cash balance was $23,000,000. During the fourth quarter, we generated $10,000,000 in cash flow from operations. We generated $5,000,000 in cash flow from investing activities, including $7,000,000 from excess insurance proceeds, partially offset by $2,000,000 in CapEx.

We used $22,000,000 in our financing activities as we paid down $16,000,000 on our operating line of credit and $5,000,000 on our term debt. As a result, we ended the year with $55,000,000 outstanding on our term loan. At year-end, we had total borrowing availability of $102,000,000 consisting of $37,000,000 under our operating line of credit and $65,000,000 under our term loan facility. Our improved profitability in late 2025 allowed us to further pay down $10,000,000 of principal on our term debt in February 2026, and we expect to pay down an additional $6,000,000 in March, which will reduce the principal amount of our term debt to $39,000,000 by the end of the first quarter.

We are pleased to significantly reduce our debt and continue to strengthen our balance sheet. In 2026, we plan to elevate our capital expenditures to roughly $25,000,000 while maintaining strong cost discipline and prioritizing the highest ROI projects. Approximately 45% of our capital expenditure budget is earmarked for maintenance projects, while the remaining 55% is for optimization projects, including taking further steps to implement capacity increases at our Pekin dry mill. Included in the $25,000,000 budget are the costs to complete the repairs of the existing dock and to add the second alcohol load-out dock. As a reminder, we are building the second dock to mitigate future business interruption and enhance our logistical capabilities by expanding throughput and creating redundancy.

We expect to begin the repairs on the original dock and the installation of the second dock this spring and to complete both projects by 2026. I will now turn the call back to Bryon. Thank you, Robert.

Bryon T. McGregor: In summary, we entered 2026 with a leaner cost structure, a higher mix of premium exports and carbon-advantaged volumes, expanded CO2 opportunities, and potential upside from 45Z tax credits. We have completed the heavy lifting of addressing losses at underperforming assets, removing structural costs, and repositioning our portfolio toward higher value and more consistent revenue streams, and are moving forward with plans to improve the company's return on assets. By continuing to improve operations, we believe we will strengthen Alto Ingredients, Inc.'s ability to capitalize on favorable margin environments, to stabilize when margins are compressed, and to ensure that our assets are producing positive returns.

In 2026, we intend to stay focused on what is within our control, on driving improved profitability, and on executing on multiple opportunities to grow earnings. As a reminder, the first quarter is a seasonally challenging period for us, and in January, extreme cold weather disrupted river logistics and curtailed production at our Pekin campus. We took advantage of the downtime to make some of the repairs we had planned to complete in the second quarter during our biennial wet mill outage. This has allowed us to defer the remaining work until 2027 and to make up for January's lost production next quarter.

With respect to additional outages planned for 2026, we expect normal Q2 outages at ICP and Columbia consistent with those in 2025. In the second half of the year, we plan to increase the capacity of the Pekin dry mill by approximately 8%, further improving the plant's profitability. As Robert mentioned, we have important capital projects planned for 2026 and intend to maintain strong cost discipline, and we will continue to prioritize the highest ROI projects. CO2 utilization remains a compelling opportunity for us, as demand for liquid CO2 continues to rise.

In 2026, we intend to capitalize further on demand growth in the Pacific Northwest and on our liquid CO2 process capabilities by increasing our throughput volume and storage capacity. We are also assessing large-scale CO2 utilization and sequestration opportunities at our Pekin campus and developing plans to capture more value for our CO2 as quickly as possible. We have contracted to sell a significant volume of renewable fuel exports for 2026 and believe there are increasing opportunities for us to expand volumes and premiums in this market. We are on track to match our 2025 high-quality alcohol volumes. On the regulatory front, we continue to view E15 as a meaningful long-term demand tailwind for the farming and ethanol industries.

While permanent nationwide adoption remains pending, the EPA has consistently supported summer E15 sales through waivers, and political momentum has strengthened entering 2026 with renewed administration and bipartisan congressional support. Taken together, we believe the trajectory for E15 remains clearly positive and supportive of incremental ethanol demand over time. I am proud of the progress our team has made and excited about the path forward. Our focus remains on operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation. We entered 2026 from a position of greater strength, with an improved ability to navigate market volatility and a clearer strategy to drive higher-margin diversification and enhance asset value. Operator, we are now ready to begin Q&A with sell-side analysts. Thank you.

Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed, and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then 2. We will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question will come from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright. Please go ahead.

Amit Dayal: Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Bryon, congratulations on a very strong quarter. It looks like there are a lot of drivers in place for a strong 2026 as well. But I just want to focus on the 45Z tax credits. You are guiding for around $15,000,000 in those benefits in the year at $0.20 per gallon. What steps are you taking that could maybe get you even more in those benefits? And will that potentially come through in 2026, or are you working on it for maybe 2027 and beyond?

Bryon T. McGregor: I will take the front part of this, and then Robert, if you want to round out anything that I otherwise missed. A lot of the drivers and opportunities around 45Z for us at these plants are around lowering our carbon intensity scores in some form or another, either reducing our energy demands or making changes in sourcing of products and services. Anything that we can do in that regard, including the way that we purchase feedstocks—whether it is corn and traceability and the like—is helpful. It is clear and compelling that anything that you can do to lower your score further as quickly as possible is better, and it is really a priority for us.

I do not know that it is appropriate to share more than that with regards to some of the projects, but we are actively pursuing it on many fronts and making sure that we can do what we can to lower those scores further. Robert, anything else you want to add?

Robert R. Olander: Yes, sure. Thanks, Bryon. One opportunity to capitalize further on the 45Z tax credits is also to increase our production capacity, and we do have a project scheduled for early Q4 to expand the production capability of our Pekin dry mill. It is already one of our lowest-cost producing assets, but adding additional 45Z credits on that additional production really justifies that project. Our intent is to improve the capacity by about 8%, or 5,000,000 gallons.

Amit Dayal: Understood. Thank you for that. And then, you just mentioned it, Bryon, the traceability of the feedstock. Are we already in compliance with the Treasury proposal around 45Z eligibility? I just wanted to see how we stand on that front.

Bryon T. McGregor: We are active on that front. I would not say that all of our bushels are traced. I think there is some work that needs to be done around incentivizing our farmers to provide that information. It is not just something that we can do on a stand-alone basis; it is going to require regulatory support as well and adoption across the entire industry. That said, we are doing what we can, and we are making some headway there.

Amit Dayal: Thank you. And then just last one for me. On the Western asset, should we expect revenue pickup in 2026? I know operationally that it is performing much better now, but can we think of any revenue improvements coming through in 2026 for that segment?

Bryon T. McGregor: We certainly intend to try and increase our overall utilization rate, and to work on improving our production utilization rate. Then, as I think I mentioned in the call, we are exploring opportunities to expand our CO2 throughput as well.

Amit Dayal: Okay. That is all I have right now. I will step back in the queue. Thank you.

Bryon T. McGregor: Thank you, Amit.

Operator: The next question will come from Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum. Please go ahead.

Eric Stine: Hi, Bryon. Hi, Robert.

Bryon T. McGregor: Hello.

Eric Stine: So you mentioned ethanol exports and that you had locked in a portion of that. It sounds like a meaningful portion of that for the first half. I am wondering if you can kind of quantify that a little bit. And then also curious, as you think about going forward, increasing volumes and increasing margins there, I know you have to have certain certifications to even access other markets. So I am just curious what kind of steps that would entail to both increase volumes and potentially the margins you get?

Bryon T. McGregor: While we do not specifically provide that level of detail, what is important to understand for us is that it is to try and find the optimal balance to optimize the value of the product that we are making. Particularly for ICP and for the distillery and the wet mill, to the extent that we can produce higher-quality products or export fuel products, those would be the highest marginal value for those products, and they predominantly sell at a premium to what would be domestic fuel, even including 45Z credits.

Where we can as well, at other plants that are largely designed to be selling into the domestic fuel markets, we are doing all that we can to continue to optimize those values and to obtain as much 45Z credit as we can. So really, again, finding a balance, and what we have been able to do is to sell more of that product for increasing demand in Europe for those products. While we have seen somewhat of a margin compression around some of the high-quality products that we sell, we have been able to see an increase in demand for that in the export market. Does that answer your question?

Would there be anything else you want to add to that?

Robert R. Olander: No, that is good.

Eric Stine: Good. Clearly, back half of the year, the purchases or the exports to some of those European markets were quite significant. Then the main question that I have is—this might be, Bryon, a really hard question to answer—but you have clearly raised the floor here to the business. I know in the past, at the platform, when the crush was strong that you would do quite well, but conversely, when it was really tough, it would definitely show in results. Is there a way to think about what the business looks like, maybe not in a worst-case scenario, but in some of the bad markets that we have seen in the past?

Because, correct me if I am wrong, but it seems like you have raised the floor pretty meaningfully versus where it has been in the past.

Bryon T. McGregor: I think there are a number of factors that go into that. Part of it is, as you think back at the maturation and evolution of the company, where we were originally focused around destination facilities. The brilliance in the destination was that they perform really well when you see supply constraints, but they also demonstrate their vulnerability when you get an oversupplied ethanol market, which has been largely the case for most of the, call it, 18–20 years where we have been producing over 14–15 billion gallons of capacity in the industry.

What we have been able to do, both through monetization and exiting certain locations, and then being able to shore up the financial viability of those assets with other revenue sources and lowering operating costs, is to take out some of the vulnerabilities around the port in tight crush margins. The other focus at the origin facilities at Pekin is around optimizing the value of those revenue streams and the value of those products that generate that revenue stream, and then being diligent and efficient about how we execute. It is about cost management and making sure that we are investing in projects that not only either increase revenue but also reduce operating expenses and improve efficiencies as well.

If we can do all three, that is a home run, and I think we have been able to see a lot of those benefits over the last couple of years.

Eric Stine: Got it. It sounds like you would characterize it more as this has been many, many years in the making. You have gotten rid of a lot; you have sold the two California plants, but then what you have done in the last two-plus years has taken it to that next level. Is that fair?

Bryon T. McGregor: I think that is right.

Operator: Thank you. That will conclude our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Bryon T. McGregor for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Bryon T. McGregor: Thank you. Thanks again, everyone, for joining us to hear about the progress that we have been able to make and our initiatives for 2026. As always, we appreciate your feedback and support. Have a great day.

Operator: The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

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