Where Will Oklo Be in 5 Years -- and How Much Income Could It Be Paying by Then?

Oklo (NYSE: OKLO) went public in May 2024 through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) and has taken investors on a wild ride across its relatively short history as a publicly traded company. As of this writing, the company's share price is up 645% from market close on the day of its public debut. On the other hand, the stock trades down 64% from its all-time high.

With power demand surging in connection with the scaling of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, Oklo has been garnering interest from investors seeking innovative energy plays. Oklo specializes in small modular reactors (SMRs) that could wind up being great power sources for data centers, but there's still a lot of uncertainty regarding its commercialization timeline -- and whether its tech will secure the necessary regulatory approvals and deliver results in line with the company's forecasts.

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Could AI-related demand turn Oklo into a dividend giant?

In January, Oklo announced that it had entered into a partnership with Meta Platforms. The deal sees Meta providing funding to develop a nuclear reactor in Ohio that is scheduled to generate at least 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of power for the tech giant. The first part of the reactor project is projected to come online by 2030.

Oklo currently has a market capitalization of roughly $9.8 billion. Meanwhile, the company has yet to record any revenue from actual power-generating activities -- let alone profits. The deal with Meta represents a meaningful vote of confidence from one of the biggest players in the AI space, but there are still a lot of unknowns on the table.

With that in mind, it's probably not reasonable to bet on the company paying a big dividend in the next five years. If I had to guess, I would assign a low probability to the company paying a dividend at all within the next five years -- and an even lower probability that the stock will be sporting a substantial dividend yield half a decade from now.

While paying a dividend is the norm for many companies in the energy sector, Oklo is still at a relatively early stage of its commercialization ramp-up. Even assuming an optimistic outlook for the build-out and evolution of the company's SMR technologies, I think it's more likely that the company will use its funds to expand its operational footprint and continue tech development initiatives.

For a relatively young company, it probably makes more sense to use capital to drive growth instead of returning cash directly to shareholders. That doesn't mean that Oklo will never pay a dividend, but investors shouldn't be buying the stock today with the expectation that they will be enjoying a sizable yield half a decade down the line. Oklo stands a good chance of posting strong valuation gains if it brings reactors online amid strong demand from data center customers, but investors should move forward with the understanding that this is a speculative bet.

Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.