Tesla's Optimus Robot Could Reach Human-Level Proficiency in 2026 -- Time to Buy?
Key Points
Tesla is repurposing its factory in Fremont, California, from electric vehicle production to manufacturing for Optimus robots.
Optimus can learn to do basic tasks by watching humans or videos.
While Optimus has enormous upside potential, investors have already priced in meaningful upside into Tesla stock.
- These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›
For much of its history, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) was known for its lineup of electric vehicles (EV) and energy storage products. But over the last several years, CEO Elon Musk has been sharing his vision to transform the company from a pioneer of the sustainable energy movement into a technology-enabled services business driven by artificial intelligence (AI).
At the forefront of this mission is Tesla's humanoid robot, Optimus. Musk is so serious about Optimus' potential that he's made the executive decision to scale down production of the models S and X vehicles and repurpose Tesla's Fremont factory into a manufacturing center for Optimus.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Let's explore what's at stake with Optimus in 2026. With Tesla essentially mortgaging its future on next-generation services, is now the time to buy the stock before AI fuels its next parabolic run?
What can Tesla Optimus do?
Tesla has been building, testing, and iterating Optimus for many years. In its current form, the humanoid is known as Optimus Gen 3.
In marketing videos, Tesla claims that Optimus has learned fine motor skills given its ability to handle delicate objects such as tearing paper towels, opening a cabinet, or folding laundry.
In addition, Tesla has published videos of Optimus demonstrating advanced dexterity -- with an ability to catch moving objects tossed in its general direction, as well as learning how to walk on uneven terrain.
Image source: Tesla.
When will Tesla Optimus be available?
During Tesla's fourth-quarter earnings call, Musk said that his long-term goal is to produce 1 million Optimus bots per year at the Fremont factory.
With that said, Musk tempered expectations by telling investors that even with Optimus' advances, the humanoid remains in a research and development (R&D) phase. Besides the lab, Optimus is only deployed within Tesla's own factories so that it can watch, observe, and learn how to complete basic tasks.
Musk hinted that production of Optimus won't occur until "probably the end of this year."
Is Tesla's valuation justified?
As of this writing (Feb. 18), Tesla boasts a market capitalization of $1.6 trillion. From a valuation perspective, the company trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 202. Using Wall Street's consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $4.05 for 2028, Tesla still trades at 103 times its projected earnings two years from now.
It's easy to say that Tesla stock is already priced to perfection and that buying shares today requires paying a premium. But a contrarian might say Tesla stock is undervalued because no company in history has ever successfully deployed physical AI at a global scale.
In other words, since there's nothing to benchmark Optimus against, it's impossible to know how big Tesla's robotics business could truly become.
Optimus remains an extremely asymmetric bet. If Tesla executes on this vision, the stock could soar to new highs rather easily. But if the product flops or struggles to scale, then Tesla stock could be due for a meaningful de-rating.
Against this backdrop, I would not buy Tesla stock today purely on the hype that Optimus will transform the company by the end of the year. In reality, it will take years -- or even decades -- before Optimus adds additional trillions of value to Tesla in the long run.
Don’t miss this second chance at a potentially lucrative opportunity
Ever feel like you missed the boat in buying the most successful stocks? Then you’ll want to hear this.
On rare occasions, our expert team of analysts issues a “Double Down” stock recommendation for companies that they think are about to pop. If you’re worried you’ve already missed your chance to invest, now is the best time to buy before it’s too late. And the numbers speak for themselves:
- Nvidia: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2009, you’d have $492,341!*
- Apple: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2008, you’d have $50,381!*
- Netflix: if you invested $1,000 when we doubled down in 2004, you’d have $424,262!*
Right now, we’re issuing “Double Down” alerts for three incredible companies, available when you join Stock Advisor, and there may not be another chance like this anytime soon.
See the 3 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of February 24, 2026.
Adam Spatacco has positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Recommended Articles
