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Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026 at 8 a.m. ET
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Management set revenue guidance for 2026 at more than twice 2025’s total, anchored by a minimum $1 billion expectation for Brinsupri and continued ARIKAYCE growth. The US Brinsupri launch delivered $144.6 million in its first full quarter, with high payer access and early physician adoption fueling management’s upside conviction. Cash flow positivity is expected on the base business without further capital raise, though future business development could prompt incremental funding. Clinical milestones, including the phase III ENCORE trial for ARIKAYCE with label expansion potential, and a single pivotal phase III for TPIP in PAH designated as sufficient for registrational filing, are positioned as near-term drivers.
William H. Lewis: 2025 was an exceptional year for Insmed Incorporated. Defined by extraordinary execution and transformative impact. Commercially, we witnessed the approval of Brinsupri and its stunning early months of launch performance. As well as the continued global performance of ARIKAYCE. Which showed significant acceleration from commercial efforts in Europe and especially Japan. Clinically, we saw best in class performance from TPIP entered two new gene therapies into the clinic for DMD and ALS, and completed the acquisition of INS 1148. These accomplishments represent a significant expansion of our clinical pipeline despite the discontinuation of CRS without nasal polyps program last quarter. We entered 2026 with momentum that positions Insmed Incorporated for sustained leadership in both bronchiectasis and NTM.
In the year ahead, we intend to accelerate and expand The US launch of brinsupri while continuing to grow ARIKAYCE. Rarely does a company have the opportunity to own an entire disease category by virtue of having the first approved medicine in a disease with no competition on the immediate horizon. Insmed Incorporated enjoys two such opportunities in bronchiectasis and NTM both of which also share a similar call point among pulmonologists. To the strong foundation, we intend to pursue other first or best in class therapies within our three target therapeutic areas, which include respiratory, inflammation, and immunology, and neurology and other rare diseases.
Today, we are pleased to announce revenue guidance for brinsupri of at least $1,000,000,000 in 2026. Are confident providing this guidance earlier than expected due to the additional visibility we have gained into the market access environment and the early performance we have seen from Brinsupri so far this year. To our knowledge, only 15 drug launches in history been able to surpass the billion dollar mark in their second through fifth full quarters of launch And every company that has achieved that milestone has gone on to reach a market valuation of $70,000,000,000 or more.
Coupled with another expected strong year of performance from ARIKAYCE, we anticipate total company revenue in 2026 to be more than double the revenue we produced in 2025. This guidance gives us confidence that we can achieve cash flow positivity without needing to raise additional capital. However, we may choose to source capital as necessary to support new business development internal programs, or other potentially value creating initiatives. We are currently evaluating several such opportunities and will continue to do so as we prudently seek to expand our pipeline. Let us now dive deeper into Brin Supri. In 2025, The US launch of Brinsupri surpassed even our most ambitious expectations.
Pre launch, we set a very high bar for what we believe brinsupri could achieve using a basket of historically strong respiratory launches as our guide. With a $144,600,000 in net revenue in its first full quarter, I am proud to say that Brinsupri is exceeding that bar. And let me be clear, the launch continues to go well and the team continues to execute at a very high level. As with many successful medicines, the shape of the launch from one month to another can be inherently variable. But the overall trajectory for this launch is strongly up into the right.
And we believe Brin Supri has the potential to be among the best if not the best, specialty respiratory launch ever. Let me now take a moment to illustrate where we expect the brinsubri opportunity to evolve over time. In these early months of the launch, we see brinsupri establishing itself at the forefront of treating bronchiectasis with no competition for several years. We had previously framed out a peak sales estimate above $5,000,000,000 for this indication and everything we have seen so far from this launch has only added to our conviction that the opportunity is at least that large. I wanna emphasize this point. We believe there may be much more. Let us get specific.
We previously defined the total addressable market in The US based on brinsupri's label as five hundred thousand currently diagnosed patients with non CF bronchiectasis. Within that diagnosed population, we estimate that approximately half or hundred and fifty thousand patients have had two or more exacerbations in the last twelve months matching the profile of the patients who participated in our clinical trials. Based on those figures, the roughly eleven thousand five hundred and fifty new patients who have started treatment with brinsupri in 2025 represent less than five percent of that patient population. So there remains an enormous amount of runway within that initial total addressable market.
And as a reminder, the greater than $5,000,000,000 peak sales estimate was based on us successfully addressing these two hundred and fifty thousand patients only. In addition, we believe that over time, more of the remaining two hundred and fifty thousand currently diagnosed patients with less than two exacerbations will start to move into the category of those who have had two or more exacerbations in a twelve month period. This is due to the progressive nature of the disease and better patient reporting and documentation of exacerbation events now that there is an available treatment. This belief is supported by real world data.
In the two year study of claims data for nearly fifteen thousand patients with bronchiectasis, about forty seven percent had two or more exacerbations in the first year of follow-up. Then in the second year, another nine percent joined that group. Meaning that fifty six percent of study patients had two or more exacerbations in either the first or second year. Based on that study, it is our expectation that patients will continue to move into the two plus category over time, and this would represent upside to our peak sales estimates. Now I can leave you with one item to focus on, it is this. There are thirty two million diagnosed patients with COPD or asthma in The US.
We believe that many of those patients could have undiagnosed bronchiectasis and as a result, may continue to exacerbate despite treatment with standard care for those diagnoses. I would encourage you to consider and assess this potential for yourself. Recognizing the size of that opportunity, we are turning our attention to outreach and education to physicians in the hopes that they can assess these patients for the presence of bronchiectasis. The potential additional patients from these populations which would be on label for brinsupri if they are confirmed to have bronchiectasis, dwarfs the initial total addressable market we have just been discussing. Are currently working on a number of different programs to advance the exploration and quantification of these patients.
This effort will be supported by evidence generation in several large respiratory centers who intend to use retrospective data to identify bronchiectasis in patients diagnosed with COPD and asthma who are still exacerbating. We are also creating dedicated teams within our medical and commercial operations to identify these potential patients given the substantial populations they represent. As many of you know, historical medical literature on this topic provides a wide range of estimates. But a more recent publication that looks specifically at the overlap between COPD, asthma, and bronchiectasis suggests that bronchiectasis could be involved in thirty to over fifty percent of patients with moderate to severe COPD and in twenty five to forty percent of patients with severe asthma.
These patients may not have received attention or been identified in the past, because until Brinsupri came along, there had been no medicine that physicians could turn to upon diagnosis. As we are able to identify patients that may benefit for Inbrinsa supra from within this broader population, we have a chance to help physicians deliver what we believe could be a game changing medicine for the benefit of their patients. It is an enormous opportunity to serve patients and it will take several years to more fully manifest, but it has the potential to expand for in super impact by orders of magnitude.
This is something we are actively working on and will continue to monitor but it is our belief that we could begin to see these patients as early as the end of this year within the pulmonary practices we already call on, and more evidently, in 2027 and beyond. Let me now take a step back and describe what we are seeing within the launch to date. Today, we are still in what I would call the exploration stage of the launch. This is a new medicine, and as is customary, physicians often wanna try it out on a patient or two to see how it works. Assess safety, and then determine how much more broadly they intend to prescribe.
For example, of the 4,000 physicians who have written a prescription through the 2025, nearly half have prescribed burnsupri to just a single patient. As those first patients return to their pulmonologist and share their experience with the treatment early this year, this should play an outsized role in their physician's interest and willingness to write again. Today, we have heard very positive feedback through our interactions with physicians, and directly from patients through our support services, as well as through the patient experiences that have been shared in public forums or on social media.
It can often take several months for patients to return to their physician's offices to be able to convey these experiences, but this positive early feedback suggests that the knock on effect of these experiences should start to result in additional prescribing behavior by the second quarter. Given the large number of new patients that were added in the 2025. We believe these positive experiences with the current diagnosed bronchiectasis population should also increase the likelihood that physicians will be receptive to proactively tracking exacerbations and screening their COPD and asthma patients for bronchiectasis. Turning now to the mechanics of how patients gain access to brinsupri. Critical element of successful launches is favorable payer access dynamics.
And I am pleased to say that this is progressing very well. In fact, over ninety percent of targeted patient lives have access to GETRA and SUPRI reimbursed either through a documented payer policy or medical exception. We chose to engage payers in an effort to encourage them to make access for appropriate patients as frictionless as possible. For those who have been willing to engage with us and settle on simple attestation based prior authorization and reauthorization criteria, we have offered modest rebates. Others have chosen to require documentation within their medical policies, which typically means requesting documentation of the CT scan and proof of two or more exacerbations.
Importantly, we have seen a very high payer approval rate so far even for payers requiring documentation, which is very promising. Given our long history with ARIKAYCE, which even now has primarily reimbursed through medical exception, we become skilled at providing education to health care providers and their offices about documentation and process requirements. We expect these high approval rates to continue in the months ahead as physicians and their staff become more accustomed to the payer reimbursement requirements. While we expect contracts to continue to officially go into effect over the course of the first half of this year, we have concluded enough of these negotiations to feel confident the general direction of the market access landscape for VINSupri.
I am pleased to say this landscape is aligned with our prelaunch expectations with broad access to the treatment for appropriate patients and either physician attestation or manageable documentation required for reimbursement in most cases. In summary, the Brinsubri launch continues to be very strong. The rate of patient adds, new physicians, and manageable market access dynamics gives us comfort that from the initial patients we are targeting, we see a clear path to reaching our stated peak sales goal of more than $5,000,000,000 with potentially significant upside from the adjacent populations outlined a few moments ago that could take that peak sales number much higher.
We will have much more to say in the quarters to come as we gain a clear picture of how big and when those patients may be diagnosed and become on label for brinsupri. The opportunity itself is one that any biotech company would be fortunate to have and we intend to aggressively resource the launch to maximize its potential. Now let me spend a moment on ARIKAYCE. Our commercial teams continue to do an excellent job of driving growth of the product. Japan had a particularly impressive 2025, delivering 40% growth compared to 2024, and contributing more than a quarter of ARIKAYCE's global revenues. In Europe, ARIKAYCE grew even faster, albeit from a more modest revenue base.
This strong commercial execution sets the stage for ARIKAYCE's next clinical readout the phase III ENCORE trial, which we expect to announce in March or April. Success in ENCORE could open an opportunity to increase the addressable market for ARIKAYCE from around 30,000 patients today to more than 200,000 patients. Let me now switch gears and spend a moment on TPIP. Which was significantly derisked by strong clinical data in 2025 opening up the opportunity for us to pursue four phase three clinical programs in peril. Parallel.
We are very excited to announce that last month, we were informed by the FDA's office of Orphan Drug Products Development of their decision to grant orphan drug designation to treprostinil palmitil for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension. So you can understand the basis for this designation in their own words I read here from the actual letter we received from the FDA.
Quote, our decision to grant designation is based on the plausible high hypothesis that your drug may be clinically superior to the same drugs already approved for the same indication because your drug may be more effective due to greater placebo corrected improvement in six minute walk distance compared to other approved oral or inhaled formulations of treprostinil and by means of a major contribution to patient care compared to the approved subcutaneous and intravenous formulation of prepostinil, close quote. This decision, was based on the FDA's assessment of our phase two data released last year, is a striking validation that our belief that TPIP has the plausible chance to be a meaningfully differentiated treatment compared to other treprostinil options.
In our view, this supports our long held conviction that TPIP could become the prosanoid of choice for physicians and patients. Last month, we presented the trial design for our PAH phase three trial of TPIP in patients with PAH at the PVRI conference in Dublin. Recall that the FDA agreed based on the strength of phase two results, we would need just one phase three trial powered at the standard point o five alpha for a registrational submission. On this slide, you can see a depiction of the trial design for PAH. While much of the design is similar to our phase two trial, there are some key differences.
First, the trial has a longer treatment period of twenty four weeks versus sixteen weeks in phase two. This longer treatment period is intended to provide patients with a practical titration window given that this trial will allow patients to dose up to twelve eighty micrograms or double the highest dose used in phase two. To put that high dose into perspective, twelve hundred eighty micrograms of TPIP after subtracting the weight of the 16 carbon chain contains about eight hundred and thirteen micrograms of treprostinil. That is more than three times the highest labeled daily dose of Tyvaso DPI for patients that fully comply with the four doses required per day with that treatment.
Another difference is that the phase three study will allow patients to be on background cetatricept. Enrollment of those patients will be capped at twenty percent of the overall population and stratified to ensure balance between treatment arms. Finally, the primary endpoint of six minute walk distance will be measured one to three hours post dose to approximate TPIP's peak effect similar to trials of other treprostinil products. Prof measurements will also be captured as secondary endpoints. We are incredibly excited to get this trial started in the first half of this year. To recap, I am very pleased with where we are as a company.
The Brinsupri launch continues to go well, allowing us to announce revenue guidance for 2020 of at least a billion dollars for that therapy. When combined with the strong performance that we expect for ARIKAYCE in 2026, we expect to produce revenue on a company wide basis that more than doubles from last year. And even that could be just the beginning as we await a near term pivotal readout for ARIKAYCE could expand its label and we work to identify new patients who could benefit from brin supra For TPIP, we have received an orphan drug designation for treprostinil palmitil for the treatment of PAH and have released a phase three trial design for that indication.
If successful, the FDA has indicated that this single phase three would be sufficient to support a filing for TPIP in patients with PAH. Finally, we have a strong and growing pipeline of potentially first or best in class investigational programs behind the ones we have spoken about today. Many of which should also begin to contribute catalysts over the next year and beyond.
William H. Lewis: With that, let me turn the call over to Sara.
Sara M. Bonstein: You, Will, and good morning, everyone. Given that Will has already walked you through our 2026 revenue guidance for ARIKAYCE and Bransubri, let me
Sara M. Bonstein: provide you with a few additional comments on our expected gross to net in 2026. In the past, we have highlighted a range of 25 to 35% as a reasonable analog for ransupri's gross to net at launch. This range was based on precedent launches and the impact of new catastrophic coverage required under IRA legislation. Today, we believe we have good visibility into where payer contracting is headed and are now positioned to provide a gross net guidance range of mid twenties to low thirties for bransupri in 2026. Importantly, our 2025 gross to net for BRENTSUBRI was also in that range.
Which implies that the rebating expected to go into effect into 2026 will be modest and is therefore not anticipated to have a significant effect on the overall GTN of the product. For ARIKAYCE, GTN for 2026 is expected to range from the low to mid twenties, a slight increase from 2025 due primarily to the impact of the small manufacturer phase in and other provisions on under IRA. Let me spend a moment on our cash position. As of the end of 2025, we had approximately $1,400,000,000 in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities.
Cash burn in Q4 included approximately $70,000,000 of onetime items largely attributed to the asset acquisition of INS 1148 and the milestone payment to AstraZeneca related to bransupri's US approval. Excluding those onetime items and the cash received related to stock option exercises in the period, our underlying cash burn for the quarter was similar to the underlying burn levels that we saw in the prior quarter. Keep in mind that only a portion of the Bronsubri revenue we recognize quarter had been received in cash as of December 31, so our cash burn does not reflect that full benefit.
As we have said before, we expect both revenue and spending to continue to increase as we fully resource and support brands launch as well as other programs from across our portfolio that are expected to continue to ramp in the near and medium term. Finally, I would like to reemphasize the statement Will made earlier as it relates to our pathway to profitability. Based on our existing development plan and the strength of our commercial engine and its revenue capabilities, I am confident we can achieve cash flow positivity without needing to access additional capital.
That said, I will remind you that we have and will continue to invest in appropriate business development opportunities as well as internal programs and therefore may choose to source additional capital to advance and expand our pipeline and support of additional future value creation. Moving now to other relevant financial metrics for the fourth quarter. Which are displayed on this slide. Cost of product revenues in the '25 was $44,200,000 or 16.8% of revenues, which is lower on a percentage basis based on our historical performance reflecting the positive contributions of Brinsupri to the company's gross margin profile.
Additionally, as expected, research and development in SG and A expenses increased this quarter compared to prior year period due to the necessary investments made to support The U. S. Launch of ransupri and to continue to fund our growing pipeline. In closing, I am pleased to report that Insmed Incorporated remains an a strong financial position, providing us with the capacity to pursue our ambitious goal to expand our reach and our impact on patients. We look forward to continuing to utilize our resources to pursue the potentially value creating opportunities we have in front of us. We will now open for questions. Operator, may we take the first question, please?
Operator: Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question. You may reach you for any follow-up questions. Your first question today comes from the line of Joseph Patrick Schwartz from Leerink Partners. Your line is open.
William H. Lewis: Great. Thanks so much and congrats on the very strong performance. It certainly seems like the TAM for Brinsupri has a lot of room to expand with a very well designed strategy to identify patients with COPD or asthma who are exacerbating with bronchiectasis but might not yet be identified as such I look forward to hearing about that progress on that as you embark on this initiative, but I was wondering if you have any plans
Operator: to develop other DPP one inhibitors within respiratory disease in order to
William H. Lewis: expand your, franchise further? And if so, how do these other agents differ from Supri?
William H. Lewis: Yeah. I appreciate the question. Absolutely. We intend to bring other DPP ones forward, not just in the respiratory indications, but in others. As an example, ten thirty three will enter the clinic this year for rheumatoid arthritis and irritable bowel disease a couple of indications within that, and that will be in the second half of this year. In parallel, we are also advancing other DPP ones into conditions in respiratory like COPD and asthma. That is absolutely on the horizon for us.
I you know, Martina perhaps can comment a little bit here on the distinction between the patients we are targeting who may be responsive to brinsupri because they are bronchiectatic versus those who are asthmatic and or COPD of a particular profile distinct from the bronchiectasis patient that these other DPP ones would target. Martina, do you want to address that?
Sara M. Bonstein: Yes. Sure. So we are we are looking at a phenotype, of patients who continue to exacerbate, even so they are optimally treated for COPD or for asthma already. And most of those patients not only have a higher increase in pulmonary exacerbation, but also an increased acceleration in lung function decline as well as an increase in mortality. So that is a specific phenotype of population that we are looking for.
Operator: Your next
Operator: question comes from the line of Jason Eron Zemansky from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Great. Good morning. Congrats on the progress, and thanks so much for taking our question. Will, I was hoping you could provide some additional color regarding the guidance for brenstupri. Can you speak to some of the specific elements of patient behavior that gives you confidence at this point, specifically with regards to dynamics like compliance, discontinuations, prescription abandonment, I know it is early, but do you have a sense of what that looks like and how did that influence you know, your projections? Thanks.
William H. Lewis: Sure. So we have, as you might imagine, a number of different data sources we examine, but there is generally a very detailed dashboard. And what I would convey to you is that across all the metrics, we are seeing at or above our targets. And that is very much behind why we have the conviction that we will do at least 1,000,000,000 in revenue in Brinsupri this year. So I would I would say across the board, we are very encouraged you know, whether it is market access metrics, whether it is, you know, use you know, low discontinuation rates, reauthorizations going through, I would I would say we feel very, very good about where things are.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Olivia Brayer from Cantor. Your line is open.
Sara M. Bonstein: Hey, good morning. Thank you for the question and my congrats as well on the quarter. Can you comment at all on the scripts trends that Symphony is picking up? Are those January and early February trends indicative of what you guys are seeing on your end? And anything you can tell us at this point just about how new starts are trending so far this year, And then I did just wanna ask around interest in BD activity. It looks like you guys flagged that a couple times. In the slides, and potentially raising capital around that. What kinds of deals are you guys interested in pursuing?
And what is the rationale for potentially doing a bigger deal at this point?
William H. Lewis: Yeah. Thanks. As it relates to the to the performance, I mean, I think things just are very strong out of the gate is the only way I could describe it. And so we see we hear a lot of talk about the Symphony data, obviously. We do not track it. We do not pay attention to it. But what our what we were trying to accomplish today because we are always very detailed and I would say transparent about the puts and takes that may be in operation in any given week for any given medicine. This is what could hold it back. This is what could accelerate it.
That, I think, is often interpreted as caution or conservatism on our part. And what I wanna make sure we get across today is that we feel great about the way this launch is going, and we do believe we are gonna join that very rarest of groups that can produce a billion plus in revenue by adding quarters two through '5, together. There are not many in history that have done it and those that have gone on to be very successful companies.
And that is because, you know, to get to that level by the end of the fourth quarter, gonna have to be at a run rate that would imply you are gonna continue to do very well as you go into '27 and beyond. So with all that confidence that comes from doing the examination at a very refined level, of script trends, physician behavior, surveys that we do, behavior of patients on medicine. The market access picture. All of these things come combine to give us a very good feeling about the direction we are traveling and that is why we are able much earlier than expected to give this direction that we will do at least a billion.
That then feeds into the notion that we are on track to get the cash flow positivity without having to access more capital, and that is absolutely the case. The only potential issue we wanna raise is that if we see something that is interesting, on the business development side, we would not hesitate to bring it on board. We think now is the time to press the advantage should we find first or best in class compounds that we can bring on board.
An example of that would be I n s one four eight, which we got in our view for a very modest amount and which has what we consider to be DPP one like potential its application across a range of different potential diseases. So more to come on that asset. But assets like that we can add that are sort of phase two ready those are in our sweet spot for sure where we can step right into the clinic, bring to bear our capabilities and clinical developments and trial design and get to a next candidate molecule that could be first or best in class.
Operator: Your next
Operator: question comes from the line of Ritu Subhalaksmi Baral from TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Operator: Good morning, guys.
Sara M. Bonstein: Thanks for taking the question. Will, can I dig into some of this baseline guidance a little further? And Sara as well. When could when will you and when will we get more clarity on refinement of this $1,000,000,000 plus level? Consensus already fits right around that, and if you stretch the numbers out, it implies, you know, percent quarter over quarter guidance, which strikes me as relatively modest given the past few quarters and all of the patient finding initiatives. Does this have so can you comment on that? And also, does this idea of requiring the additional paperwork, I guess, and the two or more exacerbations factor into the uptake?
Because it sounds like you guys are expecting a certain number of plans to still require this documentation. And that it might be higher than you previously expected. Thanks. Those are the questions.
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So let me be really clear. The market access picture is fantastic from our point of view. It is ahead of where we thought it was gonna be internally. So in no way do I want you to interpret our mentioning of some plans requiring documentation and some not as being indicative of any impact on anything other than enthusiasm for our forecast. I would tell you about that existence of those requirements of documentation, we always expected that some portion of these plans would require that. That is why we fielded so many field access managers who can support the back office effectively in navigating that.
And to be clear, to date, that is how everybody has done it. It is been all medical exception. So now that the policies come into place, that smooths the uptake because our concentration has always been on patients with two or more exacerbations even though our label is for any and all bronchiectatic patients.
Jessica Macomber Fye: So
William H. Lewis: strong position with regard to market access and uptake. And with regard to the baseline guidance, look, we have one full quarter under our belt. So it is, I think, audacious to put out a billion dollar plus forecast for quarters 02/2005 since only 15 product in history have ever done it. The best of our knowledge, and that includes all the COVID products, the GLP ones, Harvoni in hep c, SKYRIZI, you know, household name programs. And to that list, Insmed Incorporated intends to add its name. So we are incredibly happy about where we are and where we are going.
I would not interpret at this stage, which is very early, one full quarter under our belt, thinking that by saying a billion we in any way mean to imply that we are slowing down. On the contrary, is what is giving us the confidence to go and suggest that there is gonna continue to be acceleration throughout the year. We will provide more qualitative guidance at least as we go through the year on how the quarters are progressing But given the dashboard and the direction we are traveling right now, feel very good about this launch.
Operator: Next question comes from the line of Gavin Clark-Gartner from Evercore ISI. Line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the question. So you said you have not seen any change in approval rates from start forms to paid drug? What is that actual approval rate right now? And just on a similar topic, have you seen any changes in the conversion speed from StarForm to paid drug? Thank you.
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So we are not disclosing particular elements of it, like the approval rate itself. I would tell you is that our benchmark internally based off of our experience with Aircase, which is very good, is very high, and we are at or exceeding that level. Then with regard to any other thing that is actually driving the launch, as I said, the dashboard for us is green. So I do not know how else to convey to you that we feel that in a very strong position.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Yuxi Dong from Barclays. Your line is open.
Sara M. Bonstein: Hi. This is Jasmine on for Ali. Thank you for taking the question, and congratulations on the progress. What is the ex U. S. Contribution to your guidance of $1,000,000,000 or more for '26 And can you just talk a little bit more about your launch strategy, US for this year? Thanks.
William H. Lewis: Sure. So I will ask Sara to comment on the on the different components of our of our revenue in a moment. You know, the strategy is to launch in Europe and in Japan We want clarity on the MFN policies that are that are coming forward now. I think we are gonna have that in the in the coming weeks and at the most months. But, but until that is clear, it seems to us that the prudent thing to do is to sort of things on hold until we know what that is gonna look like. To be very clear, that does not you know, reduce our enthusiasm for going to Europe and Japan.
And our teams there are continuing to advance work in contemplation of when that day comes, but we really need clarity from the administration first on what these policies are gonna are gonna look like so we can, those trade offs and understand where we need to go to. Sara, do you wanna take the composition question?
Sara M. Bonstein: Sure. Happy to, and thanks for the question. What I would comment on is, as we have said previously, any Ex US contribution for Brent Supri in 2026 was going to be very, very small given the original timelines we would put out. We are obviously going to be monitoring The US policy as well as well stated. So we feel very confident in the billion dollars plus for Brent Subri regardless of sort of the timing of the of the pause. As we are thinking about contributions. And broadly speaking, the contributions for Brunsupri will be vastly weighted towards The US.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Gao Yi Chen from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Hey. This is Brandon on for Andy, and thanks for taking the question. Regarding additional capital to support business development or other value creation,
Benjamin Burnett: To us, this sounds like incremental spend on clinical programs. How are you thinking about this relative to achieving cash flow positivity? And is achieving cash flow positivity more of a near term 2026 goal, or the outer years? Thank you. Yeah.
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So we I would just say we see a very clear path to cash flow positivity. I view it as an inevitability. Just based on our assumptions about where revenues will go for both Brinsupri and ARIKAYCE, Our base business that this cash flow positivity journey contemplates includes phase three programs for HS, which may or may not happen as we all know. But it contemplates some expenditure in these programs that you are making reference to. So we would put the cash flow positivity journey separate from BD. BD is the thing that is incremental that would result in us approaching the markets, for capital. And look, there is plenty of different ways we can do that.
And, Sara, maybe you wanna just take it from here and share your thoughts.
Sara M. Bonstein: Sure. Happy to, and thanks for the question. Yeah. It is well said. We have the one 400,000,000.0 provides us that ability to fund through cash flow positivity for our base business, inclusive of the programs that we have under our umbrella today. BD is obviously separate from that. As we think about different ways to augment balance sheet, there are, you know, all levers that are that exist are available to us, and we have the ability to be, thoughtful on that if and when, the appropriate BD opportunity did present itself.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Leonid Timashev from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to ask a little bit about
Nick Lenard: depth of prescribing. I think you mentioned that a lot of scripts are currently coming from physicians writing just one script. I guess, is there something that they are waiting for in that initial experience with patients that giving them pause from increasing their prescribing right now? Is there any additional education that you guys are doing to sort of try to drive that depth? And I know earlier at one point you had mentioned that in some of the centers of academic centers of excellence, the drug is still working its way through P and T committees, I guess. Are you seeing that work its way through?
And can we expect an increase in-depth of prescribing across physicians and centers?
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So this is really important. With almost half having written only one prescription and, obviously, the vast majority of patients added in the fourth quarter, what we are trying to frame out is that what we have seen is physicians will try with one or two patients And as I just mentioned, fully half of them have only done one. So as those patients experience the use of the drug, with the with what has been to date a benign safety profile and a pretty good experience that is reported back, we know that will fuel the, use of the medicine in other patients within those practices.
And all of these practices we think of as having multiple patient candidates for the drug. Now if we take a deeper dive on these physicians and their behaviors, it is typical that they would wait a few months for the patient to return to the office to express what their experience has been. That dovetails nicely with what we saw as the onset of symptom benefit during the phase three and phase two programs. That gives us some confidence that as we enter the first and second quarter of the year, those patients come back in, they report positive experiences, Obviously, that will not be universal, but it has been our experience that it has been very positive.
And the consequence of that is those physicians are gonna be inclined to write again. Of note, we have a very broad prescribing base already. So the ability to gain depth from that positive experience and reinforcement is just one office visit away. And that to us is incredibly encouraging as we come into 2026. And, yes, we are absolutely drawing attention to that. We now have up and running an extensive speakers bureau So this is a compliant way of educating people on the experience of the medicine, peer to peer, and I think that is gonna be very beneficial.
We have a number of other programs that we activate to make sure that we get if you will, vocal about what people are seeing, and that allows everyone to understand what the benefits could be make their own assessment. But I would say universally, their experience to date, we have had a very good feedback loop beginning, and I think that is gonna enter a benefit throughout '26 and beyond.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Jessica Macomber Fye from JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Sara M. Bonstein: Guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. You talked about the launch being up strong and to the right. Well, I think also in prepared remarks, noted that quarters can sometimes vary along that strong trend line. And back at JPMorgan, you would kind of flagged some unknowns just related to being so early on in the Brin Supri launch. So I am curious, have any of those unknowns that you alluded to at the start of the year just become more known now that we are at least halfway through the first quarter? And then just quick
Operator: kind of
Sara M. Bonstein: second part to my single question. With revenue guidance now in the picture, should we expect Insmed Incorporated to continue providing things like patient starts and prescriber metrics going forward? Thank you.
William H. Lewis: So with regard to the unknowns becoming known, yes. We have seen some things that we were not aware of and how they would shake out things that are very important, like market access, policies, the actual experience and timing of getting a prescription filled, Are patients staying on drug or dropping off? Are they getting reauthorizations? Even as they change plans, are those going through What is the approval rate? Whether you have a policy or it is just, medical exception? All of those things, would say, are trending positive from our internal benchmarks in a way that gives us confidence, to be able to provide the guidance we have.
And I think as we think about that revenue guidance going forward, we will obviously provide additional clarity
Operator: But
William H. Lewis: I think, you know, in general, the most important thing we recognize, which is why we put it out today based on our confidence, is that people wanna know what this drug's potential could be. From a revenue generating point of view. We see behind each one of those dollars obviously, a patient that is benefiting from the medicine, and so the revenue is derivative of that patient benefit.
And it is very important to keep that north star in mind because, ultimately, that is what we are in the business of doing is helping these patients and the positive stories that are coming back from the use and experience with this medicine we believe, will yield additional revenue benefit and that is where this revenue guidance is coming from. And as those unknowns that I have some of which I reviewed, become clear, it absolutely gives us greater confidence that we are gonna be as we say, up into the right.
It is a little bit hard after only one quarter full quarter, and a partial first quarter to give upside, you know, direction in terms of what the what the cap could be. But I would say we see this as a year of incredible potential sitting there with at least a billion of just for Brinsupri and $4.50 to $4.70 for ARIKAYCE, that is a very interesting profile where both drugs are first in disease, have no competition for the foreseeable future, and are called on by the same commercial infrastructure.
So there is synergy, there is leverage, there is upside and growth, And when Encore comes out, assuming those results are positive, we have the expansion of that market opportunity. So, you know, this is just the beginning of this kind of direction and guidance.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Maxwell Nathan Skor from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Great. Thank you very much for taking my question. So I was just wondering, how do you expect
William H. Lewis: pulmonologists to navigate payer requirements around ruling out COPD or asthma as the primary driver of symptoms?
Jessica Macomber Fye: I am just trying to think about what needs to change in these practices to potentially recognize bronchiectasis as the main driver in maybe a comorbid patient? Thank you.
William H. Lewis: Sure. So in our phase two and phase three trial, we had about fifteen to twenty percent of patients who were comorbid with asthma and COPD. And importantly, particularly if we take something like asthma, it is a spirometry test in the office that enables the diagnosis of COPD. In order to get a definitive diagnosis of bronchiectasis, you need a CT scan and a pulmonologist evaluation. But you are you are you are that proximate to that diagnosis. In many cases, CT scans do not get ordered because say, you were able to diagnose it as bronchiectasis. Good does that do if there is no medicine to treat it?
Now there is something that can treat it that can lower is demonstrated to lower exacerbations and all the other benefits we have received we have discussed in the past of note of the twenty five milligram arm preservation of lung function, which is particularly relevant for a COPD patient. So these are exciting opportunities for those patients who have bronchiectasis to gain potential benefit from this treatment. And they are literally one CT scan away. So it is not a difficult distinction to make, if you do the CT scan and that is really the funnel change that will have to take place.
And why we are encouraging physicians to give consideration when they have asthma or COPD patients who are on max treatments and still experiencing exacerbations hey. Maybe there is an undiagnosed bronchiectatic patient in front of me. And the numbers that are suggested by the literature are quite substantial here. While this may take a little time to turn and activate in terms of a patient population, Literally, internally, we think of it as another launch. It will eventually yield, we think, significant number of patients on label for brinsupri treatment.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Phipps from William Blair. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Thanks for taking my questions. Congrats on continued execution commercially. The work that you guys have mentioned that looks that the COPD and bronchiectasis overlap is there any correlation with eosinophil levels? And just given, you know, we have had two biologics targeting type two inflammation, approved for COPD recently, wonder if that just becomes another step for physicians before they order a CT scan as they are thinking about, you know, the additional pathophysiology for their patients? Thank you.
William H. Lewis: Sure. And, Martina, do you want to do you want to field that question?
Operator: Yes. Sure. So I think if you if you think about the COPD or the asthma patients, physicians will go with what are their standard of care and then add medic as patients needed. Many COPD patients or asthma patients have multiple treatments. So for COPD, clearly, those are bronchodilators and healers, but also, labelloma combinations. And, of course, corticosteroids. So it depends very much of what is the status of your COPD patients, are they benefiting it or not, and then you have the opportunity to accelerate into a different treatment paradigm and potentially consider what are biologic treatments and may these patients benefit from them.
So there is always a treatment, treatment paradigm that you that you look at from depending on what the clinical status is of your patients.
Operator: But,
Operator: you have to have as a physician also the clinical suspicion that it may not only be the underlying disease that you are treating. So the COPD and or the asthma that you are treating But if your patient is becoming optimally treated, even if this is a biologic and continues to exacerbate then the question has to be raised of is that what is driving an exacerbation. Not really COPD or asthma. They may still have that, and you are treating that optimally. But then you are asking, now I have to see if there is something else. And that is where the question comes in. Have I run a CT scan?
And I think often patients if you add additional in medications along that treatment paradigm, physicians will ask themselves the question, what else, do I have to look for before I continue escalating a treatment paradigm?
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Danielle Brill from Truist. Your line is open.
Jennifer M. Kim: Hey guys, this is Alex on for Danielle. Thanks for taking the
Nick Lenard: I was curious if you could give a little bit of a breakdown of the payers that are requiring documentation versus attestation versus the plans that require medical exception and what percentage of covered lives does that represent? And then lastly, just comp you know, if you could share your confidence in getting policies in place that are currently using medical exemption going forward. Thanks so much.
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So, Alex, I am gonna disappoint you. I am not gonna break out the covered lives and what is documentation, what is not. I would just tell you this. Which is the benchmarks we set for what percentage would be you know, required documentation, they are they are right in line. We are probably a little better than what we were thinking.
And I think what is important is that all of the guidance that is coming out that we have seen so far is aligned with the guidance that came out at CHEST which is that the patients you wanna you wanna be thinking of first for this are two or more exacerbations, and that is the way that the market access world is interpreting it. It is the way we have driven physicians to think about the use of this drug in terms of first patients to try it on.
And so I think all of that aligns nicely And so what you have seen in the partial third quarter and first full quarter in the fourth quarter, is this market access picture that is not expected to change dramatically in terms of our ability to add patients without a lot of friction. And that is because not only are we very experienced with the market, medical exception pathway, but we are getting many plans to agree to doing attestation which should, if anything, help the process. The more predictable it becomes, the easier it is for the back office to know what to do. And our teams are there in a compliant way to support that. Education and execution.
So I feel very good about the market access picture. I think within the launch when we look back at this and talk about what has gone very well, market access is gonna be one component, that we got right.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Adam Walsh from Roth Capital. Your line is open. Adam, your line is open. Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Douglas Willey from Stifel. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Yes. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question.
William H. Lewis: Just curious if you are expecting the majority of
Jessica Macomber Fye: patient reauthorizations to occur six months after starting therapy and know your comments seem to suggest that some payers have already required reauthorization at earlier
William H. Lewis: time points. So just curious if there is anything that you can say about
Jessica Macomber Fye: the seamlessness of the of the reauthorization experience in Thanks.
William H. Lewis: The point of greatest friction, I think, in this world is when you get into the first quarter and you have some patients who change medical plans, does that get bridged effectively? Is the reset of the copay, you know, what kind of a break does that put on things? And I would say that, you know, in our first quarter, we feel very good about the way things have gone, so much so that we can give the guidance that we provided.
Know that we can give a lot more detail beyond that except to say that say you know, if we were seeing difficulty or breaks of some kind, we would be calling that out, and we are just we are not.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Graig C. Suvannavejh from Mizuho. Your line is open.
Nick Lenard: Thanks. Good morning. Congrats on the quarter, and thanks for taking my questions. I really want to tap into the additional Brinsupri in the thirty two million or so patients who have COPD and asthma as a potential revenue opportunity Just to clarify, to be able to tap into that patient population, is there anything that you need to do, I. E, do you need to run a clinical study, or how would that mechanically work to be able for a doctor prescribe that medicine? Would that be off label or just any color there, please?
William H. Lewis: Yeah. No. So we are speaking very specifically on label. Exclusively, and that is all we would ever focus on. And the way that flow occurs is for a physician who has, as Martina described, either asthma or COPD, perhaps is fully treated for that condition. And yet continues to exacerbate and perhaps have sputum expectoration, that patient becomes potentially a candidate for a CT scan to evaluate if the additional difficulties they are experiencing are a byproduct of bronchiectasis. The moment that CT scan and pulmonologist have a definitive diagnosis of bronchiectasis, they are on label for our drug.
If they have had two or more exacerbations, their path to reimbursement for the use of the medicine should be very smooth. And so, that is really what we are describing is that all of the COPD and asthma patients thirty two million we estimate is the number, what percentage of those may still be experiencing exacerbations despite best treatment. And then of those, how many have either already had a CT scan? And so we can go back and review those CT scans to see if there is evidence of bronchiectasis.
Because remember, if you do a CT scan and it is not that uncommon for many of these patients to have one, it does not mean that they would have identified bronchiectasis. They have to go looking for it. Or perhaps the radiologist called it out, but it does not get coded because back then there was nothing approved to treat it. So there is advantage in going back and looking at existing CT scans and doing a definitive assessment of whether there is bronchiectasis in evidence. There is also the patients that are having the experiences I am describing getting an additional CT scan for the first time and having it evaluated at that moment.
So our education efforts are both medical and through commercial channels. Compliantly raising the index of suspicion about this and hopefully identifying those patients who would benefit with a definitive diagnosis of bronchiectasis and getting them on brinciubri.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Ashwani Verma from UBS. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Morning. This is Spy Josh on for Ash. A question on the TPIP IPF study design. How critical do you think it is for you to show survival benefit to claim a major contribution to patient care versus Tyvaso?
Nick Lenard: And does your potential study design change
Jeff Hung: based on what Tyvaso shows on the survival endpoint in the ketone one study that is about read out?
Jennifer M. Kim: Thanks.
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So what I would say is that study design is not yet finalized. I do not know if, Martina, you wanna comment on anything further with regard to where we are going with that? With that TPIP program and IPF? And particularly the survival endpoint he was raising.
Operator: Yeah. So we had not really looked at exactly what that what the design will be. I think looking at Teton and what endpoints they use and also the design is looking at Teton and what endpoints they use and also the design is a good guidance. Certainly, that will be one consideration for us, but we have not, at that point, really communicated on the design. But we will discuss that also with the FDA, and then we will share it with you once we have a better picture of what we will move forward with.
Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Benjamin Burnett from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
William H. Lewis: Hi. This is Jin Chi on for Ben. So
Jessica Macomber Fye: for taking our questions.
William H. Lewis: Two quick ones. First one, just wanna make sure understand correctly. So the 1,000,000,000 guidance is all two pulmonary
Benjamin Burnett: exacerbation patients.
Jessica Macomber Fye: And any one PE patient is going to be upside. And second one on ARIKAYCE, data is around the corner.
William H. Lewis: Any commentary that you can provide it on blinded data, whether it is PRO or sputum conversion rate. And what is kinda internally, how do you think about a bar for approval and most importantly, like, commercial success Thanks for the thanks for your
Jessica Macomber Fye: time.
William H. Lewis: Sure. So on the billion dollar question, are they all you know, is that revenue guidance, is that based off patients who have two or more exacerbations? Yes is the answer to that. We think there is upside from the additional 250,000 patients is a progressive disease, and we do anticipate as the as the most recent paper I mentioned in the in the remarks, identifies that some of those patients with less than two or more exacerbations will fall into two or more exacerbations as time goes on because the progressive nature of the disease and the heightened awareness of diagnosis and all the rest.
In response to your second question, you will be pleased to know we have decided we are not gonna be getting into the game of blended data anymore. We certainly monitor that. I think the challenge of it is always knowing that there is an alternate explanation for whatever promise direction it may be suggesting, where I feel confident in the error case ENCORE readout is that we have already run studies using this drug in this disease and have seen the primary endpoint and secondary endpoints measured with success on more than one occasion. The exception to that, obviously, is the newly developed PRO that PRO was developed in conjunction with the FDA using the arise data.
As the benchmark for understanding what we think is like likely to be the way to interpret clinical relevance. And what does that mean? It means that we feel very good going into the discussion with FDA that the results will be compelling enough to enable a full approval for all MAC NTM. In Japan, all they want is culture conversion. Obviously, it has to be safe and effective, but they measure effectiveness by culture conversion and that is the primary endpoint. We have never had a trial where we have not definitively won on that front.
To remind you, the ARRISE trial was basically a six month trial with one month off and the ENCORE trial is simply a longer version of that same trial design We recruited the patients at the same time. We simply randomized more of them. To the shorter term ARRISE trial. And so for all of these reasons, we feel very good about ENCORE. Being producing data that will enable approval in The US and Japan. Obviously have to see the data to make final conclusions, but that is right around the corner, and it will unlock a very substantial additional population for 30,000 addressable patients to over 200,000.
So this is a very substantial future contributor starting in '27, assuming that these data are what we expect them to be. And then we are able to launch in The US and in Japan.
Operator: Your final question comes from the line of Adam Walsh from Roth Capital. Your line is open.
Jessica Macomber Fye: Great. Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. My question's on Grinsupri persistence. We recently talked to a pulmonologist who would like in Brinsupri to the blood pressure pill. That it prevents long term damage but does not deliver necessarily immediate
Nick Lenard: symptomatic relief, and he flagged the one year mark as the key discontinuation
Jessica Macomber Fye: risk based on his biologic experience. With your earliest patients now approaching six months on therapy, can you
Nick Lenard: share any aggregate persistence or refill data and talk to your strategy about ensuring persistence
Jessica Macomber Fye: with the medicine. Thank you.
William H. Lewis: Yeah. So the first thing I would say is that refills so far are going very well. So I think that is a very positive sign early on. We know that what is great about this medicine is as was once described by someone at one of the faculty at ATS who described it as the holy grail of pulmonary medicine because it was the last unaddressed patient population and the treatment burden of a once a day pill is unbelievably low relative to what these people typically take for other indications in the respiratory arena or otherwise. It is often inhaled medicines, as you know, and those kinds of treatments.
As we think about where we go from here, I would tell you that profile, that dynamic should in their benefit to the uptake of the medicine. We know from the secondary endpoints in the phase three study especially at the twenty five milligram dose, these patients, had a highly nominally statistically significant finding in favor of feeling better on the medicine. So it is our expectation that storyline will come back and empower physicians to write additional prescriptions And through that process, we would expect, things to grow and expand as our depth increases.
I do not worry so much about the continuation of the use of the drug given some of the early stories we have heard about patients feeling better on the drug. But even without that, knowing the avoidance of losing lung function, which many of these patients are focused on at twenty five milligram dose, we were statistically significant in preserving lung function. So even if you do not feel it, to be told that by your physician, I think, is a very compelling driver for use, and certainly the refill rate would suggest that.
Operator: This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
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