Can Rivian Stock Beat the Market in 2026?​

In 2025, Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock spent most of the year rising and falling, sometimes beating the S&P 500 and sometimes falling below, before the stock eventually ended the year up 48% compared to the market's 16% return.

Here's why 2026 could follow a similar pattern.

Image source: Rivian.

What Rivian should know about the EV market

Electric vehicle (EV) investors have been on a whirlwind over the past few years as EV companies have had to navigate shifting regulations, complicated tariffs, and the end of federal EV tax credits for consumers. The result sent Rivian's stock on a wild ride in 2025, and more uncertainty could be ahead.

One of the most significant problems for Rivian and other EV makers has been the amount of uncertainty that has come from the Trump administration. Tariffs, and the threat of tariffs, left automotive companies unsure of how to manage parts supplies, and recent moves by the administration to roll back Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations could cause more uncertainty for automakers.

Rivian and its peers rely on a predictable supply chain and clear regulations when they set their product roadmaps. With a constant threat of new tariffs and shifting regulations (including the early termination of EV tax credits), the current administration is making it difficult for Rivian and other automakers to create a clear path forward.

While Rivian and its management did a good job navigating the uncertainty in 2025, investors should understand that the current administration could shift positions on any number of decisions and throw a wrench into Rivian's latest plans.

Why Rivian stock could beat the market in 2026

Rivian has already started off the year strong, with the company's share price jumping after the company reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. Rivian has a loss of $0.54 per share and $1.29 billion in revenue, compared to analysts' consensus estimate of a loss of $0.68 and sales of $1.26 billion.

Just as important was the company's 2026 vehicle delivery guidance of between 62,000 and 67,000 units, which would be an impressive 53% increase from 2025 at the midpoint. Shareholder optimism for 2026 hinges on Rivian's new R2 vehicle. The R2 is smaller than the company's R1 SUV and much cheaper. While the R1 has a starting price of about $77,000, the R2 will start at just $45,000.

That starting price tag is a big deal because the average new vehicle costs about $49,000 in the U.S. right now. That means the new Rivian R2 could appeal to mass-market buyers by offering an EV that has an average price that's lower than many gas-powered vehicles.

Rivian is still a riskier stock to hold right now, but I think successful R2 deliveries in the coming months -- if paired with continued demand -- could help it outpace the market this year. But Rivian stock is likely to have a bumpy ride for a while, and if R2 demand is low, the stock could easily underperform.

Chris Neiger has positions in Rivian Automotive. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.