Can Nio's High-Flying Growth Chart Continue? Hint: Yes, Definitely.

Source The Motley Fool

Key Points

  • Nio's deliveries spiked more than 70% during the fourth quarter.

  • Management believes delivery CAGR to be between 40% and 50% in the near term.

  • Nio's CEO said the company's fourth-quarter vehicle gross margin reached its target of 17% to 18%.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Nio ›

Nio (NYSE: NIO) did an impressive job navigating choppy waters in the electric vehicle (EV) industry last year. The Chinese EV maker had to deal with a brutal price war in China that has weighed on industry margins, new or increased automotive tariffs in many global markets, and an occasional supplier or materials bottleneck. Despite that, Nio has posted wild delivery growth in recent months, and the good news is investors can expect that trend to continue.

What's going on?

Nio's deliveries climbed 54.6% over the prior year's December to reach 48,135 vehicle deliveries in the final month of 2025, a new monthly record for the young EV maker. Fourth-quarter deliveries were even more impressive, also setting a new quarterly record, with a staggering 71.7% increase year over year.

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Graphic showing a spike in Nio deliveries.

Data source: Nio delivery press releases. Chart by author.

As you can see in the graph above, Nio's deliveries have spiked near the end of 2025. Investors looking for clues to where the company goes from here, however, should take a closer look at the vehicle delivery breakdown. Nio's December deliveries broke down into 31,897 vehicles from its premium namesake Nio brand, 9,154 vehicles from the company's family-oriented Onvo brand, and 7,084 vehicle deliveries from its Firefly brand.

The smaller delivery figures from Nio's two newer brands, Onvo and Firefly, emphasize how much room they have to run in the near term. In fact, between Nio, Onvo, and Firefly, the company will launch three new models in 2026, all of them being large SUVs, which the automaker believes will drive delivery compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) between 40% and 50% over the next two years.

Nio Firefly branded vehicle.

Image source: Nio.

Profitable growth is key

What should be exciting to investors currently is that Nio's margins are driving higher. Investors couldn't be blamed for being nervous that newer vehicles, often smaller and more affordable, from Onvo and Firefly could negatively impact margins. Thanks to cost-cutting and building scale, however, Nio's margins have consistently improved. In fact, Nio's CEO gave a sneak peek into the company's upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report when he told reporters Nio's vehicle gross margin target of 17% to 18% was met during the fourth quarter.

Turning the corner

Nio's fourth quarter as well as its full-year 2026 are massive potential turning points for the young EV maker. Management hopes to reach its first adjusted EBIT profit during the fourth quarter, and to sustain that through 2026 to break even, on an adjusted basis, for the full year. Not only would that be a massive turning point for the company itself, but it would also be a large step for the broader industry that still struggles with EV profitability. Nio entered 2026 with momentum, and while anything can happen, investors should expect its more profitable delivery growth to continue.

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Daniel Miller has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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