Bitcoin Reaches ‘Fire-Sale’ Valuations as ETF Outflows Jump, Says Bitwise

• Bitcoin’s two-year rolling MVRV z-score has dropped to its lowest level ever, pointing to extreme undervaluation.

• Global Bitcoin ETPs recorded $1.35 billion in weekly net outflows, driven primarily by $1.49 billion exiting U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

• Bitcoin’s daily RSI fell into the 20–25 range, a level that has historically preceded 10% price rebounds in every occurrence since August 2023.

“Fire-sale” valuations emerge as sentiment collapses

According to Bitwise’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass, Bitcoin’s recent decline has pushed its two-year rolling Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) z-score to a record low. The firm describes the current setup as reflecting “fire-sale” valuations for BTC.

The MVRV z-score compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the aggregate on-chain cost basis of investors, adjusted for historical volatility, and is widely used as a gauge of overvaluation or undervaluation.

Bitwise’s Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has also fallen to levels last seen during the October 2023 liquidation-driven crash, with only two of the 15 tracked indicators remaining above their short-term trends.

Fund flow data reinforces the bearish backdrop. Global crypto ETPs saw $1.73 billion in net outflows last week, following $1.81 billion the week before. Bitcoin-focused products accounted for $1.35 billion of those withdrawals, largely driven by U.S. spot BTC ETFs.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) posted weekly outflows of $119 million and $947 million, respectively.

Bitcoin may stabilize near recent lows

Bitcoin may be forming a short-term bottom after establishing support near $74,500 on Monday. The daily RSI has slipped into the 20–25 range, a zone that has historically preceded approximately 10% relief rallies, with June 2024 being the only instance where the rebound was delayed.

Lower time-frame indicators also support a potential bounce. Spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) on both Binance and Coinbase has turned positive as BTC recovered toward the $79,300 area.

A rising spot CVD signals net aggressive buying, while flat open interest and negative aggregated funding rates suggest the move is being driven by spot demand rather than leveraged long positions. This reduces the immediate risk of forced liquidations.

More than $1.8 billion in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated last week, further clearing excess leverage. Current liquidity conditions now skew to the upside, with over $3 billion in cumulative short positions vulnerable to liquidation near the $85,000 level.

Crypto trader “exitpump” highlighted this setup as well, pointing to a bullish spot CVD divergence across major exchanges.