US December Nonfarm Payrolls Data to Be Released, 2026 US CES In Focus 【The week ahead】

TradingKey - As we enter 2026, while the closing fluctuations of the three major U.S. stock indices last Friday appeared relatively calm, numerous technology-themed stocks experienced a surge of investor enthusiasm on the first trading day of the new year. This week, the market anticipates the release of U.S. December non-farm payroll data. Additionally, Venezuelan President Maduro may appear in a U.S. court for trial, potentially triggering volatility in commodity markets. In the technology sector, the CES exhibition will take place in Las Vegas, with industry leaders such as Jensen Huang and Lisa Su scheduled to deliver speeches.

Major Event Preview

The world's largest technology event, CES 2026, is set to commence, with Jensen Huang and Lisa Su making appearances on the same day.

The market is gearing up for the year's inaugural blockbuster event, the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026, which will be held in Las Vegas, USA. According to public information, this year's CES will feature several companies showcasing new products that have garnered significant attention from the capital market, including home robots, AI glasses, and wearable devices. Furthermore, how various manufacturers plan to address the surging memory prices for laptops and PCs will also be a hot topic this week.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to advance, this year officially marks the era of "physical AI." Major tech giants are poised to showcase robots with physical interaction capabilities and highly integrated AI home appliances, demonstrating various real-world applications of AI technology in daily life.

U.S. December Non-Farm Payrolls Draw Attention

The U.S. Department of Labor is scheduled to release December non-farm payroll data, along with JOLTS job openings and other labor market indicators, on Friday (the 9th). According to a Reuters survey, non-farm payrolls in December are projected to have increased by 55,000, compared to a 64,000 rise in November, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.6%, a new four-year high.

Nomura released its U.S. economic weekly report, forecasting that U.S. non-farm employment in December will rebound to 75,000, primarily due to robust private sector hiring, and the unemployment rate may slightly decrease to 4.5%. The minutes from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting highlighted resistance to the interest rate reduction proposals discussed during the meeting. Nevertheless, most officials maintained their accommodative policy stance. Nomura also anticipates that consumer confidence in January will rebound to its highest level in four months.

Maduro Incident Could Reshape Commodity Landscape

A U.S. military raid on Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Maduro and his wife, is a sudden action that disrupts the geopolitical balance in Latin America. It is poised to exert profound macroeconomic effects on global precious metals and crude oil markets through three core channels: geopolitical risk premiums, supply-side shocks, and the reconfiguration of policy expectations.

As the country with the world's largest proven oil reserves, the sudden political shift in Venezuela will not only disrupt short-term price volatility but also reshape the medium-to-long-term market landscape. Its impact is expected to follow a clear trajectory of "short-term impulsive rallies, medium-term supply-demand dynamics, and long-term reversion to fundamentals."

Selected Economic Data

Monday: U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: U.S. December ADP Employment Change

Wednesday: U.S. December Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls

This Week's Featured Events

Monday: U.S. President Trump Delivers Speech

Tuesday: Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 Held in Las Vegas

Friday: 2026 FOMC Voting Member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari Delivers Speech