What Will Drive Starbucks (SBUX) Stock in 2026? 3 Important Factors Investors Must Watch.

Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) is the undisputed king of the retail coffee market. As of Sept. 28, it had just under 41,000 stores globally, with 41% of them in the U.S.

Yet the company's dominance in part masks its recent challenges. Shares are down by 4% in 2025 and trading 31% below their peak.

Investors in the company are hoping that 2026 will be a better year for Starbucks. If you're a shareholder or considering buying the stock, here are three important factors to pay close attention to.

Image source: Starbucks.

1. Successful turnarounds are always difficult

Under CEO Brian Niccol, who took over in September 2024, Starbucks has been working on a turnaround effort. Called "Back to Starbucks," the plan has focused primarily on improving the in-store experience by investing in labor and technology, simplifying the menu to speed up service, and bringing back the coffee shops' "third place" vibe as a comfortable public gathering spot.

For its fiscal 2025 fourth quarter, which ended Sept. 28, Starbucks reported same-store sales growth of 1%. This snapped a six-quarter streak of shrinking comps sales, suggesting that it might have reached an inflection point.

In the retail world, foot traffic is a key pillar of success. If Starbucks can continue improving on that front throughout 2026, investors should be encouraged.

2. For this business, the brand is everything

Another important factor is the Starbucks brand, which is a significant piece of the company's economic moat. Its recent sales struggles have called into question the power of the brand, but Starbucks remains unmatched in its niche when it comes to its reach, pricing, menu innovation, and technological capabilities.

There are currently 34 million active members of the company's rewards program in the U.S., providing an invaluable channel that management can lean on for product and marketing initiatives. Starbucks' digital prowess helps maintain that connection with its best customers. In 2026, investors should pay close attention to management's commentary regarding the brand's position.

3. Starbucks has a new playbook in China

With a population of 1.4 billion and a huge middle class, China offers a compelling opportunity to many Western consumer brands. Starbucks has operated in the country since 1999, when it opened its first store there, and China has been a major growth engine for the chain. However, competition, mainly from rapidly expanding chain Luckin Coffee, as well as different consumer expectations, have forced Starbucks to rethink its playbook in the country.

In November, Starbucks announced that it was selling a 60% stake in its Chinese retail operations to a private equity firm, creating a new joint venture.

"The two companies will elevate the Starbucks customer experience, accelerating innovation in beverages and digital platforms, expanding into new cities and regions, and deepening connections with customers through meaningful local relevance," the company said in a press release.

The ultimate goal is to expand Starbucks' footprint in China from about 8,000 stores currently to 20,000 one day. The deal is expected to close by the end of March.

Neil Patel has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Luckin Coffee and Starbucks. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.