Prediction: Zcash Will Flip Monero in 2026 and Never Look Back

Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) and Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) are both big enough to be taken seriously, with their market caps in the ballpark of $7 billion, but small enough that one unfavorable policy shift could practically wipe them out overnight. The problem is that despite the huge regulatory overhang with those assets, most investors still frame privacy coins as a technology contest. But in 2026, it's far more likely that the segment will be a regulatory compliance contest.

Given that dynamic, Zcash is going to have the edge over Monero. Here's why the future will probably see Zcash pull ahead for good.

Image source: Getty Images.

Europe is writing the rulebook for privacy coins

The European Union is obviously not the only jurisdiction that counts, but it's one of the few that reliably turns policy into actually enforceable constraints for industries, including crypto.

The preferences of regulators in the E.U. have so far been overwhelmingly against anonymity-enabling technology, and in favor of more traceability and auditability. In particular, the E.U.'s brand new Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) explicitly bans anonymous cryptoasset accounts, and takes a dim view of the related tech.

If a crypto exchange thinks that listing an asset will trigger an escalation with regulators, it will often choose the boring option and simply remove or choose to never list the asset. Privacy assets, including Monero, have already experienced delistings in parts of Europe. If the new regulations are implemented as they are currently written, the entire privacy coin segment is going to be cut off from capital inflows from the E.U., as most investors won't be allowed to invest via the largest exchanges.

That's where Zcash could have a structural argument that Monero struggles to match. Zcash supports both private and public transactions, and it uses cryptographic proofs called zk-SNARKs to let someone prove that a transaction is valid without revealing the sensitive details. More importantly for regulators, Zcash supports selective disclosure via its viewing keys, which are a feature that can separate the powers associated with spending authority for a given wallet from those associated with viewing authority. In other words, viewing keys give holders a lawful a way to be private by default but auditable when necessary.

Monero does the opposite by making privacy mandatory so that senders, receivers, and amounts remain hidden by default. From a user experience perspective, that's certainly the lower-friction approach, but the regulatory risk it introduces is becoming undeniably burdensome. Furthermore, given Monero's reputation of being a hub for illicit activity -- a reputation that Zcash has seemingly avoided, mostly by luck -- it's obvious that it will face an uphill battle in getting relisted if it gets kicked off the most reputable exchanges.

Thus if the E.U. keeps tightening its standards and more venues treat privacy coins as potentially toxic, Zcash is going to be easier to keep listed. And, if regulators elsewhere take a note from those in the E.U., the global effect on the prices of these assets is going to be significant, and probably negative. So far, U.S. regulators have seemed just a hair more tolerant toward the privacy coin segment, but that may change for better or worse in time.

Zcash still needs usage to match its story

Zcash's edge is that it can plausibly tell financial institutions that it can do both privacy and auditability at the same time. If those institutions decide to invest in or adopt privacy coins to offer to their clients in the future, that will put it at the top of the pile. Monero can't really say that, at least not yet, and changing such a foundational element of its network may not ultimately be possible. That's why Zcash is going to be the better privacy coin through 2026 and likely beyond.

For it to succeed in the long term, it will need to continue expanding its base of capital stored in its private pool. After all, without actual utilization of its privacy feature at scale, Zcash is just another volatile altcoin.

So if you're looking to get exposure to privacy coins, and you can tolerate the risks involved, go for Zcash instead of Monero. But think twice about whether you really need to be investing in this segment at all when questions about its legality and its future are still unanswered.

Alex Carchidi has positions in Zcash. The Motley Fool recommends Monero. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.