XRP’s Price Action Flashes a Warning Even as ETF Flows Stay Positive

• XRP’s chart still looks heavy, and the market structure hasn’t shown a clean reversal yet — even with spot XRP ETFs logging another streak of positive closes.

• Analysts warn that ETF optimism can’t “carry” a token if price keeps failing at key zones, especially in thin, directionless New Year trading conditions.

• With XRP having lost the Daily Imb zone, traders are watching $1.98 as the first major resistance on any bounce, while deeper downside scenarios keep $1.53 on the table as a potential (not guaranteed) accumulation area.

XRP is a good reminder that narratives don’t trade — price does. Even as spot XRP ETFs keep printing positive closes, the token’s market structure is still signaling caution. The chart remains weak, and until XRP shows a confirmed shift in trend, short-term downside risk hasn’t gone anywhere. In other words: ETF “good news” can help sentiment, but it doesn’t automatically rewrite a bearish tape.

New Year volatility is pressuring altcoins again

In a recent update, analyst Efloud noted that the start of the year has brought another round of turbulence, with crypto once again among the harder-hit risk assets. Low trading volume and a lack of clear directional conviction have kept pressure on the market, and in that kind of environment altcoins often bleed slowly — not because of one dramatic catalyst, but because nobody’s stepping in aggressively enough to change the slope.

That’s the backdrop for his main warning: trading against the prevailing trend at support can work, but only if the market actually shows it wants to turn. Without clear bullish breakout structures on lower timeframes, upside moves tend to be short-lived reactions — the kind that look exciting for an hour and then get sold into.

Technically, Efloud points out that XRP has now lost the “Daily Imb” zone, weakening the broader setup. If price pushes below the most recent swing low and then finds demand, he expects $1.98 to be the first major resistance area where sellers are likely to show up again. He adds that the outlook remains negative unless the YO region is reclaimed.

And $1.98 isn’t the only ceiling. Beyond it, another resistance pocket sits inside the red boxed zone. Put together, Efloud frames $1.98, the YO area, and the red boxed region as three nearby hurdles that could repeatedly cap any rebound attempts in the near term.

Why price structure still matters more than ETF optimism

Efloud’s bigger point is almost painfully simple: ETF flows are not a trend signal by themselves.

He notes that spot XRP ETFs have posted 18 consecutive days of positive closes, but argues that this streak doesn’t outweigh what XRP’s price action is showing. For him, the chart remains the primary source of truth. Until the structure starts to flip bullish in a clear, undeniable way, any buying is better framed as gradual accumulation rather than a confirmed reversal entry.

That distinction matters. Accumulation implies patience and the acceptance that price may still go lower before a real base forms. It’s closer to “building a position over time” than “calling the bottom.”

He also flags a deeper downside scenario: if market suppression persists and XRP sees a sharper correction, the area around $1.53 could become a potential buy zone. But he’s careful here — he describes $1.53 as a hypothetical example, not a guaranteed target. Whether price ever gets there depends on broader market behavior, liquidity conditions, and whether the wider crypto complex continues to slide.

His closing caution is the one most traders ignore until it’s too late: buying at support without first seeing a clear breakout or reversal structure adds risk. In a weak market, “support” often turns into a trapdoor — and the chart doesn’t care that ETFs had a good week.