Tesla vs. Rivian: Which EV Stock Will Outperform in 2026?

The top electric vehicle (EV) maker in the world remains Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), but competition has been increasing from upstarts like Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN). Both stocks experienced a lot of ups and downs in 2025, but it is Rivian will be the best-performing stock this year, with its share price up more than 23% year to date as of this writing, compared to about a 10% increase for Tesla.

But that's past performance. Let's examine which stock looks poised to outperform in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

The case for Tesla

2025 was a rough year for Tesla operationally -- its revenue dropped both in Q1 and Q2, as its automotive deliveries fell. It did see a bounce-back in revenue and auto deliveries in Q3 ahead of the end of the federal tax credit for EVs, although its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) plunged 31% and it felt gross margin pressure, as the sale of 100% margin regulatory credits dried up.

How the stock performs in 2026 will likely come down to the progress it makes in its robotaxi business. Tesla is currently testing its cybercab business in Austin, Texas, although the pilot is currently limited to a geofenced portion of the city and requires a safety driver to be in the vehicle. CEO Elon Musk has said that Tesla's robotaxis will be fully autonomous in Austin by year-end, and he recently reiterated that stance with the end of the year about three weeks away.

Musk has also recently said he is looking to double the size of Tesla's Austin robotaxi fleet this month. That would bring the total to about 60 vehicles. However, that is well below the 500 cybercabs that Musk earlier projected to be operating in Austin this year. He also predicted that Tesla would have about 1,000 robotaxis operating in the San Francisco Bay area by the end of 2025, but it has not been given a license to operate in the state of California yet. If Tesla can start delivering on these promises, though, even if a bit delayed, the stock should have nice upside from here.

The case for Rivian

Rivian made big strides in 2025. It turned in two straight quarters of positive gross margins in Q1, unlocking a $1 billion equity investment from Volkswagen, and then was able to shake off tariff and supply chain pressures to also turn a gross profit in Q3.

The company has done a great job of lowering the cost to make its vehicles by revamping its SUV's internal design and improving its manufacturing process. The biggest key was switching to a zonal architecture system, which greatly reduced the number of electronic control units and wiring in its vehicles. This technology also helped spur its investment and joint venture with Volkswagen.

The key for Rivian in 2026, though, will be the launch of its new, smaller R2 SUV. The vehicle will be priced significantly lower than its R1 SUV, opening it up to a much broader customer base. The vehicle is also poised to carry much higher gross margins, and it has already locked in its input costs with suppliers. However, the biggest reason why it will be more profitable is that the R2 will be produced at much higher volumes, and fixed costs will be spread across a much larger unit base.

The verdict

Tesla has a history of overpromising and underdelivering, which makes it difficult, in my opinion, to bet on the stock and its robotaxi promises heading into 2026. Rivian, meanwhile, has a much clearer roadmap, and the launch of the R2 should help propel sales and gross profits.

As a company currently with slim gross margins and free cash outflows, Rivian is a more speculative stock, but the setup looks good heading into 2026. As such, I think it can once again outperform Tesla next year.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends Volkswagen Ag. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.