Stock-Split Watch: Is IonQ Next?

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) has been one of Wall Street's most polarizing tickers over the last year.

The quantum computing researcher has seen its stock surge from the mid-teens to a recent price near $59 per share. The 52-week range runs from $14 to $85 as I write this. Despite a pullback in the last couple of weeks, the stock had still gained 303% in a year as of Oct. 23.

That kind of move puts IonQ on some investors' "stock-split watch" list. But is a split likely here?

Short answer: not anytime soon.

What stock splits do (and don't do)

A forward split increases the share count and lowers the price per share proportionally. It doesn't change the company's market value or an investor's ownership -- just the optics and per-share math. Investors are still holding ownership nibbles of the same business, just divided into a different number of slices.

Companies often split when their stock trades in the high triple digits to keep shares "accessible" and improve trading liquidity. More recently, amid widely available fractional share trades and generally rising stock prices, some high-profile splits have taken place when stock prices rose above $1,000.

A reverse split does the opposite: It reduces the share count to raise the price per share. This move is typically used to avoid delisting when a stock falls below $1 per share, or to meet institutional investment minimums. Reverse splits are usually distress signals, not victory laps.

Why a forward split looks unlikely for IonQ

IonQ's price isn't "too high" and still rising. At about $59 a share, IonQ is nowhere near the price zone where companies usually split. Trillion-dollar tech titans like Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet have split only after sustained runs into the $200 to $1,000 range. So if these giants are IonQ's role models, the quantum computing expert stands a long way away from the split-inducing price zone.

IonQ can't complain about weak market liquidity, either. With roughly 347 million shares outstanding and average daily volume around 26 million shares, IonQ doesn't need more shares outstanding to improve tradability. Investors are arguably moving more of IonQ's stock than they should already. The tech giants listed above have less than 1% of their total market value traded on an average day, with the exception of Tesla's 3.8%.

For IonQ, the active trading ratio soared to 19% today. That's a lot. In fact, IonQ's daily dollar volume sometimes exceeds Alphabet's, though the company is orders of magnitude smaller than the Google parent.

Finally, IonQ is pretty early in its development. Management teams that split shares often want to project maturity and stability. IonQ is still very much a highly volatile growth story, sporting about $52 million in trailing 12-month revenue versus a $20.6 billion market cap, and deeply negative margins. Splitting now would be a purely cosmetic move without any fundamentally useful function.

Image source: Getty Images.

Could IonQ do a reverse split instead?

A reverse split also looks unlikely in the current setup. Reverse splits are primarily about maintaining listing standards or trying to broaden eligibility for fund membership with a higher price per share. IonQ's stock is far above any delisting threshold, so there's no practical need.

When could that change? Only if sentiment and results deteriorated so far that IonQ's shares fell into low single digits and stayed there. The stock probably belongs below billion-dollar valuations from a purely financial point of view, but it rides high on quantum computing hype. As long as Wall Street keeps boosting the entire category of quantum computing stocks on every hint of successful technology research, IonQ won't need reverse splits.

Better things to watch

There is, of course, a world where a forward split could make sense for IonQ. The stock would need a sustained, fundamentals-backed rally driving shares well into the triple digits -- think $150 to $300 or more -- and management choosing to keep the stock "retail-friendly."

Such a long-lived jump would require some evidence of durable business scale. IonQ needs to improve its gross margins, establish some predictable revenue streams, and find a clear path to materially milder cash burn. In other words, not just hype, but operating traction.

And it doesn't really matter anyway. Stock splits don't create value; business execution does, which involves successful quantum research in IonQ's case. If you're following IonQ anyhow, the better "watch list" items would be:

• Order bookings/backlog and revenue mix (commercial vs. government; cloud channel traction).

• Gross margin increases.

• Lower cash burn, limited stock dilution, and a durable growth runway.

• Competitive positioning and technical milestones on the path to higher algorithmic qubits and fault tolerance -- whether IonQ develops these improvements itself or industry rivals beat it to the punch.

IonQ isn't a credible candidate for a forward split at today's price and stage. A reverse split would only enter the conversation if the story unraveled quickly and IonQ's share price collapsed -- an outcome that looks unlikely so long as investor enthusiasm and capital access remain intact.

For long-term investors, the split question is mostly a distraction. You're better off judging whether IonQ can turn today's long-term promise into sustainable system and service sales with better unit economics.

Anders Bylund has positions in Alphabet and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.