Prediction: This Quantum Computing Stock Will Be the Nvidia of the 2030s

Key Points

• IonQ is attempting to become the Nvidia of quantum computing.

• To do this, it is looking to control the entire quantum computing ecosystem.

• The company has the cash, and it is making smart acquisitions to bring in needed technologies and talent.

• 10 stocks we like better than IonQ ›

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the undisputed king of semiconductor chips, especially for artificial intelligence (AI) use, but that wasn't always the case. The company started out by developing chips to speed up graphics rendering in video games. However, it later realized that its graphics processing units (GPUs) could be used for tasks outside of this market. As such, it created a software platform called CUDA that allowed developers to program GPUs for other tasks. While many didn't know it at the time, this completely changed Nvidia's future.

To speed up the adoption of CUDA, Nvidia decided to give the software program away for free and pushed it into research labs and universities. This turned out to be a brilliant move, as it ended up creating a generation of developers trained to use its platform. Soon, entire libraries of software were being built on top of CUDA. That created a wide moat, because companies that wanted to switch to another GPU provider would both have to rewrite a ton of code and retrain their programmers.

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Nvidia added to its moat by developing NVLink, a high-speed connection that lets its GPUs operate together as a single unit. It later increased its networking advantage through its acquisition of Mellanox in 2020. That deal gave Nvidia control of cutting-edge networking technology, strengthening its position in data centers.

As you can see, Nvidia's dominance today is about much more than chips, but about developing an entire ecosystem around them.

IonQ (NYSE: IONQ) sees itself doing the same thing in quantum computing. CEO Niccolo de Masi has said flat out that IonQ wants to be the "Nvidia player" in this space. IonQ isn't just trying to make the best quantum computer; like Nvidia, it's trying to create a broader ecosystem of hardware, software, and networking that can create a wide moat.

IonQ's technology

IonQ uses a method called trapped-ion technology. In simplistic terms, it works with actual atoms, known as ions, and those atoms act as its qubits (basic units of information in quantum computing). Many competitors try to build artificial systems to copy quantum behavior, but IonQ starts with nature's own building blocks. Since every atom is identical, they are stable, reliable, and hold information longer with fewer mistakes.

Here's the basic idea: IonQ holds ions in place, cools them with lasers, and puts them into states that can be zero, one, or even both at the same time. That "both at once" feature is what gives quantum computers their edge over traditional machines. When IonQ strings ions together in chains, it can tackle problems that would stump even the fastest supercomputers today.

The real benefit is how easy it is to grow. IonQ doesn't have to design new chips every time it wants more power. It can just add more ions, making the system bigger in a simpler and more cost-friendly way than rivals.

Building a Nvidia-like moat

IonQ also isn't afraid to make acquisitions to add both technology and talent. Its pending purchase of Oxford Ionics, for example, will help it increase the number of qubits it can hold on a chip.

And like Nvidia did when it acquired Mellanox, the company is using acquisitions to get into the networking side of the business. Its acquisition of Lightsynq gives it faster connections that could let machines talk to each other at much higher speeds, while its Capella purchase gives it an entry into space-based quantum distribution networks. Overall, IonQ plans to use these acquisitions as a jumping-off point to build the secure infrastructure needed to connect future systems.

The most overlooked piece of the IonQ story is software. Nvidia's biggest edge came from CUDA becoming the standard platform for programming GPUs. IonQ is building its own moat with compilation software and error correction tools that make quantum computers more practical for businesses. Once companies adopt IonQ's software stack, they'll be locked in, just as developers were with CUDA.

IonQ also has plenty of cash to continue to execute its vision. With more than $1.6 billion on the balance sheet as of July 9, it has one of the strongest financial positions in the sector. That money gives it the freedom to invest in technology, expand partnerships, and make acquisitions without worrying about near-term funding. The company's new 65,000-square-foot manufacturing facility also shows it's preparing to build machines at scale.

The Nvidia of the 2030s

Becoming the dominant player in quantum computing will take more than just great hardware. That is why IonQ is trying to follow Nvidia's playbook and create an entire quantum computing ecosystem. Its trapped-ion technology provides a solid foundation, and its push into software and networking could create a Nvidia-like moat in the future.

That is why it has the best chance of becoming the Nvidia of the 2030s.

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Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.