The talks between the US and China begin – Commerzbank

After a long period of uncertainty, it is now official: negotiations on a deal between the US and China are going to begin, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

US-China talks officially resume

"This raises hopes of a rapprochement and ultimately a reduction in the reciprocal punitive tariffs. After the US government had backtracked significantly and the tariffs will undoubtedly hit China's economy hard, this may no longer come as too much of a surprise. The dollar should therefore only benefit to a limited extent. Especially as residual uncertainty remains."

"It remains to be seen what the leadership from Washington and Beijing will ultimately agree on. The status quo may not be sustainable, but the economic and ideological rivalry is a reality and is likely to prevent a return to (largely) free trade between the countries. It can therefore be assumed that the economic pain from the trade dispute will ease, but not disappear."