China: PBOC’s RRR cut on the radar as prices stayed weak – UOB Group

China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed for the third consecutive month to 0.2% y/y in November (Bloomberg est: 0.4%; October: 0.3%). Core CPI (excluding food & energy) remained weak at 0.3% y/y from 0.2% y/y in October. Services inflation was unchanged from October at 0.4% y/y but consumer goods inflation eased to 0.0% y/y (October: 0.2%), UOB Group’s Economist Ho Woei Chen notes.

Prices stayed near flat in November

“China’s CPI inflation slowed for the third consecutive month to 0.2% y/y in November. Sequentially, the accelerated pace of decline by -0.6% m/m in November was due to high temperatures supporting agricultural production and falling travel demand.”

“The PPI deflation eased to -2.5% y/y in November while rising 0.1% m/m in November for the first time in six months. This was attributed to the effects of the government’s existing and incremental policies which boosted demand for industrial products.”

“Overall, the price outlook remains weak and the PBOC is expected to keep its easing bias. The PBOC indicated another 25-50 bps reduction to banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by year-end to stabilize growth.”