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US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $1.28 billion of net outflows in the week to Nov 6, the largest since late June, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for $1.21 billion. Yet BTC only fell from $80,405 to $74,940, a 6.8% move. The gap between the fund flow and the price is the story: leveraged longs were flushed, but spot holders did not follow the ETFs out — and $75,000 is the line that decides whether that reading holds.
Gold rose 4.51% to $4,074.90 while Brent fell 16.42% to $98.32 in the same five sessions — two inflation hedges, opposite answers. Around them, the gold-silver ratio sits at 78.7 and copper fell 3.72%. Three regime signals, two of them close to flipping, define what commodity traders must re-price before Tuesday's CPI.
October CPI lands on Nov 10 at 13:30 GMT, and it will be published without a year-over-year figure: BLS never collected October 2025 prices during the federal shutdown. Consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core month-on-month, against +0.6% and +0.3% in September. With December hike odds at 77%, the month-on-month print is now the whole story, and $4,197–4,202 on gold and 4.86% on the 10-year are the levels that price it.
On Tuesday (Nov. 10) Eastern Time, the U.S. will release the October Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. Th